China Open

Subscribe

2-1; +0.00pts  (system plays: 8-7-2)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Two players in fine form: Bourdy finished 2nd last week and Cabrera-Bello 4th, while neither has missed a cut for at least three months. However, two factors weight in favour of Bourdy: (1) in Bourdy's last six starts in China, he has made the cut every time and won once (2009 Hong Kong Open), wheras Cabrera-Bello's last six starts in China have yielded four missed cuts and no top-10 finishes; (2) since the start of last season, Bourdy has dominated this matchup early in events: 17-7 in rd1 and 16-9 in rd2.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Wall tb Colsaerts +100 (L); Garcia tb Dyson -138 (W); Harrington tb Yang -105 (L)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Danny Willett to beat Rhys Davies +100 @ Stan James [also available @ SkyBet, Unibet and Boyle Sports]  TIED
Opposing Davies who tends to be better value in the outright markets than matchups. He lost out in a playoff for the Trophee Hassan II earlier this month, but has not finished in the top-50 in any other event in the last three months. By contrast, Willett has finished in the top-10 in the last two European Tour events and looks more likely to continue his form this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Lafeber tb Kapur +100 (L); Singh tb Cabrera-Bello +138 (T); Goya tb Kapur +115 (W); Wall tb Drysdale +130 (T)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Gregory Havret +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 2
Both players enter the weekend in 2nd place, but only one of these players is used to this situation. The last time that Havret started the 3rd round in the top-5, but not leading, was back in 2007 and the last four times that he has been in this situation he has ended the 3rd round outside the top-10. That has not been the case with Colsaerts who was in this position several times last year and performed well. He has also been playing better from tee-to-green so far this week than Havret and looks the likelier candidate to challenge current leader, Jamie Donaldson.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and 5Dimes]  WON by 5
The same old problems with Garcia - he is still a world-class player from tee-to-green, but not on it. He ranks 2nd in driving distance this week, 5th in driving accuracy, 8th in greens in regulation and 5th in scrambling. Yet despite his problems on the greens - which is why he is 23rd and not higher - he has still shot the same score as Cabrera-Bello. He only needs a slightly warmer putter or a little luck on the greens and he should win this final round matchup.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Luiten tb Willett +100 (L); Kjeldsen tb Stolz -138 (W); Lawrie tb Stolz -145 (W); Maybin tb Martin P +105 (L); Horne tb Townsend +100 (L); Hansen tb Wood +100 (W); McGrane tb Liang +100 (W); Andersson Hed tb Ramsay +120 (W); Jonzon tb Alker -139 (W); Han C tb Lee D -110 (L)]