Trophee Hassan II

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2-2; 1.50pts  (system plays: 5-12-2) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet to beat David Howell +100 @ Bet365  WON by 5
With no course form to use, backing the in-form player in this matchup. Gonnet has two top-5 finishes and missed just one cut in seven that this year, but his form advantage over Howel is much stronger at the start of events: whereas Gonnet has four of seven 1st round scores this year under 70 and is averaging 70.0 in the first round, Howell averages over 2.3 shots higher in the first round and has yet to break 70 in any first round this year.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: McGrane tb Floren -115 (L); Nilsson tb Jamieson -111 (W); Weaver tb Baker -130 (L); Lafeber tb Huldahl -110 (W); Fasth tb Ilonen +100 (W); Slattery tb Sjoholm -120 (L); Canizares tb Whiteford -110 (L); Boyd tb Huldahl -115 (L); Kjeldsen tb Hiratsuka -110 (T); McGrane tb Hedblom -110 (L)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Peter Hedblom to beat Oscar Floren -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Two players in similar positions to last week: Hedblom opened with a 69 last week and 11th after the 1st round, he is currently 12th; Floren opened with a 65 last week to be 1st after the 1st round, he is currently 5th. From that point onwards, Floren looked like a player who had missed eight of 13 cuts on the European as he dropped down the leaderboard each day to finish 40th and behind Hedblom. I'd expect a similar trend to happen again this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Wood tb Kapur -150 (L); Ramsay tb Van Zyl -105 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Peter Hedblom to beat Mikko Ilonen +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 2
Standard play to oppose a player who shot a particularly low round the previous day. In this case, Ilonen shot 64 around the Golf du Palais Royal course yesterday and as a mark of how impressive that is, the 2nd-lowest score of the day was 67. Typically, players fail to carry over such form to the following day.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Clarke tb Davies -111 (L); Clarke tb Singh +105 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat David Horsey -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power]  LOST by 3
Opposing Horsey who holds the lead (with Rhys Davies) heading into the final round. He did win the BMW International Open last year, but that was from off-the-pace. He has never previously held the lead in a European Tour event after either 36 or 54 holes and the one time that he held the lead after 18 holes (2009 BMW PGA Championship), he eventually finished 43rd.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Lawrie tb Rock +110 (T); Luiten tb Cabrera-Bello -111 (W); Fritsch tb Sjoholm -120 (W); Hedblom tb Ilonen -110 (L); Fritsch tb Hiratsuka +105 (L)]