Iberdrola Open

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3-0; +8.60pts  (system plays: 9-7-2) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Niclas Fasth to beat Jose Manuel Lara +105 @ Unibet [also available @ Stan James and Extrabet]  WON by 4
Two players with very good course form: Fasth was a winner here in 2006, while Lara has finished no worse than 16th in each of the six times that this course has been used on Tour. That sounds too much of a course specialism to oppose, but even though Pula was used last year, the previous time that it had been used on Tour was in 2007. In more recent history, Lara has been dominating the head-to-head records - he finishes ahead his opponent almost two-thirds of the time no matter how far back in time - and he is coming off a 15th finish in the Open de Espana last week, whereas Lara missed the cut. Fasth leads Lara 16-8 h2h in Spain over the last five years so even though Lara has a great course history in the previous decade, there should be value at plus odds.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Haastrup tb Nixon -120 (L); Willett tb Jamieson -120 (W); Webster tb Van Zyl -110 (L); Canizares A tb Davies -120 (L); Lawrie tb Lara -111 (W); Bourdy tb Willett -115 (W); Canizares A tb Velasco -120 (T); Lawrie tb Dredge +105 (W); Foster tb Lowry -111 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Steve Webster to beat Jaco Van Zyl +120 @ Stan James  WON by 3
Good odds to oppose Van Zyl who has only twice previously ended the first day in the top-10 when outside South Africa: in the 2007 Lasalle Bank Open he dropped from 3rd to 31st and in the Trophee Hassan II in April (in Africa) he dropped from 5th to 23rd. Quite simply, he has a great record in Africa, but is nowhere near as competitive on other continents yet. But for two double-bogeys on his back nine, Webster would also be in the top-10, so a bounce-back could be likely.

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Damien McGrane to beat Carlos Del Moral -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 2
Opposing Del Moral who has lifted himself into the top-10, but has been in very poor form recently: two missed cuts and a disqualification in his last three starts (McGrane has two top-25 finishes in his last three starts). But even when he has been in better form, he has struggled in this position - he has shot 77-72-74 in the previous three times that he has been in this situation on the European Tour since 2009.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Storm tb Del Moral -111 (W); Nixon tb Saltman L -120 (L); Lane tb Monasterio -120 (W); Fasth tb Levet -105 (L); Campillo tb Monasterio +106 (T); Cevaer tb Van Zyl +100 (W); Lowry tb Clarke -105 (L); Lowry tb Wood +130 (W); Olazabal tb Clarke +130 (L)]