Italian Open

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2-2; -1.46pts  (system plays: 12-4-1) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Mark Brown to beat Scott Strange +105 @ Unibet  LOST by 4
A good price to oppose Strange whose 50th place finish last week was his best finish for almost four months. Brown finished ahead of him last week, also had a top-20 finish in the last two months and, unlike Strange, he has played in this event previously: he finished 38th around this course last year.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Davies tb Bjorn +100 (W); Canizares tb Lara -110 (T)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Robert Coles to beat Scott Jamieson +132 @ Extrabet  WON by 6
Jamieson has had a very impressive rookie season so far with five top-15 finishes in ten starts this year and he now lies in 3rd place after an opening 65, but the majority of these high finishes have come after a slow start - in the two previous occasions that he has ended the first day in the top-10, he has failed to break par the following day. Coles has just a good a chance of doing so tomorrow: he is in good form having finished in the top-20 in Wales last week, is a regular in this event over the last 15 years and hit more greens in regulation than Jamieson today.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Fraser tb Wood +135 (W); Whiteford tb Wood +100 (W); Saltman L tb Jamieson +132 (W); Fraser tb Rock +132 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Chris Wood to beat Robert Rock -105 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 3
A couple of angles in this matchup: (i) since the start of the 2010, Wood and Rock have played in 31 common events, but Rock has shot the lower 3rd round score just once; (ii) Rock has held the 36-hole lead in a European Tour just twice previously - in the 2008 Alfred Dunhill Championship he then shot a 3rd round 69 to drop to 3rd, while in the 2008 KLM Open he then shot a 3rd round 80 to drop to 53rd. Wood should be counted upon to continue playing well - he lies just one shot behind him in 2nd place, can put the pressure directly upon Rock in the final group, he finished 3rd on this course last year and he finished 2nd in the Iberdrola Open, his penultimate event before this week.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Singh tb Dubuisson -111 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Pablo Larrazabal -125 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
A few of the many reasons to back the World #20 in this matchup: (i) he has finished ahead of Larrazabal in every single common event over the last 12 months - the last time that Larrazabal finished ahead of Molinari was in January 2010 and he will need to repeat a feat not done in their last 19 common events for this play to lose; (ii) has a great record in this event having with, for example, finishes of 1st, 3rd and 6th in his last four attempts at this title; (3) Molinari will have huge support tomorrow as not only he is a home player, but he was born and raised in Turin, the location of this event.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Bourdy tb Wood -120 (W); Price tb Pavan -120 (L); Wall tb Ramsay -105 (W); Bourdy tb Larrazabal -125 (W); Horsey tb Wood +100 (W); Molinari tb Manassero -111 (L); Cevaer tb Gaunt -110 (L); Garcia-Heredia tb Monasterio -120 (W); Coetzee tb Pavan -110 (W); Rumford tb Jamieson -110 (L)]