Sicilian Open

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0-2; -4.00pts  (system plays: 3-4-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Johan Edfors to beat Joost Luiten +110 @ Bet365  LOST by 6
Small play as this is a new event and a new course, but I don't see why Edfors should be the underdog in this matchup. He has started particularly well in events this year - he has been 7th, 1st, 122nd, and 19th after the first round in his four starts in 2011 - and he has a much longer history of fast starts (as opposed to fast finishes) on Tour. For example, in their 29 common Tour events, he has shot the lower 1st round score 20 times, tied 3 times and Luiten has shot the lower first round score just 6 times. And in each of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, he has shot the lower 1st round score at least twice as many times as Luiten. On that basis, he can backed at plus-odds for the first round this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Hansen tb Gonzalez +105 (W); Fasth tb Ramsay +100 (V)]

No round 2 plays.

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Richard Green to beat Chris Wood +120 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power]  LOST by 1
Backing the player who has been in better form recently and is the much better player when under the pressure of the final round. In their eleven common events since the start of last season, Green has shot the lower 4th round score nine times, they have tied once and only once had Wood shot the lower 4th round score.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Colsaerts tb Rock -111 (W); Dodd tb Crespi +100 (L); Slattery tb Henningsson -111 (W); Canizares tb Del Moral -111 (L); Dubuisson tb Del Moral -110 (L); Lara tb Jacquelin +130 (L)]