BMW International Open

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Richard Sterne to beat Henrik Stenson - 6 points @ 10-11 (Bet365)

Sterne is walking around with a beacon on his head screaming 'Back Me!'. Whilst it may not be his week to win, his return to form has been a highlight of the season. A multiple winner at home and on the main Tour, Sterne has recovered from missing most of 2010 in real style completing recent events with finishes of 6/2/7 , all of those in difficult conditions and on tricky tracks. Given that the BMW and Welsh events were played in top class company, it was encouraging to see him play all the way to the line and he is certainly expected to match his 9th place here in 2007. I can forgive his 33rd in '08 due to a poor Sunday and his recent play suggests that sort of round is not in the frame at the moment. Long, accurate and with sound scrambling ability, he really should be outscoring the Swede at a track that rewards good play. Both have early tee times on Thursday which I believe to be a general advantage, but only one of these will play to the line.

Stenson's case rests on his course form, a 2nd in 2005 and 6th in 2009. However, he hasn't played a true European event since the Qatar swing and even then he returned mc/mc/20. Recovering from injury doesn't seem to have sparked him into life and whilst he has shown glimpses of form he is struggling to perform at a level that sees him genuinely challenging for a trophy. Stenson's PGA form is average and he isn't trustworthy around the greens - I can't see this as an 'each of two'.

Ross Fisher to beat Retief Goosen 3 points @ 10-11 (Stan James)

Rather like Sterne, Ross Fisher has bounced back to form recently and also looks a winner in waiting. Fisher suffered some personal problems after the birth of his son but a steady family life and a change of clubs seem to have rekindled his desire on the course. 

Fisher looked as though he could dominate the Tour at one point but plummeted down to the mid 150s in the rankings and whilst his mannerisms are sometimes irritating and his play criticised for a 'lack of urgency', he possesses some fantastic ability with his irons and looks the perfect player for this very fair track. Finishes of 32/8/18 around this course are very fair and, once again, whilst these are a while back Fisher has already demonstrated that he has positive mental attitudes towards courses he has played well at; simply look at his 6th at Celtic Manor after a spell of poor play. In the end, he was poor on the final day in Sweden but still hung on for 2nd and the mid-rounds of 68/65 do suggest he is back in top nick and he is certainly expected to continue to be present on the leaderboard. 

Goose comes here with equal, if not even more, positive memories having won here in 2005. Nevertheless, even his most ardent of fans will find it tough to argue he is anything like that player nowadays and that 75 in the final round at Transitions is typical of the 2012 'Goose' when in contention. His terribly short outright price is surely due to the weekend top-10 at Olympic but that was an entirely different test when par was a good score and didn't call for scoring shots. Take into account the mentally tough weekend, the travel and the appetite for a fight and he looks the weaker of these two by far.