British Open

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3-0; +10.32pts  (system plays: 6-6-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Zach Johnson to beat Ernie Els +110 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 2
History suggests that Johnson will not win this week as well as last week, but I do expect him to make the cut and have a decent showing around Royal Lytham. He has made the cut in the last five Open Championships, including two top-20 finishes, but the penal conditions this week are more in his favour than the typically hard and fast links courses that are the norm in this event. He ranks 19th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, which is important because of the very thick rough, ranks 8th in scrambling and is 1st or 2nd in the three main putting stats categories, so with the short game important on this course, he has the perfect game for it, unlike Els who ranks 128th in driving accuracy, for example. Of course, the Big Easy has a great record in this event, but he has missed the cut in each of the last two years and he is not the player that he was. He is also, in his own words, 'rusty' after taking a mid-season break - he is in a spell of golf in which he plays eight of nine weeks - and that affected his performance last week in the Scottish Open - he finished 52nd and was suitably embarrassed after taking four shots to get out of a bunker and being the subject of 'trial by television' over the same incident. This is a price based on the former Els; the current Els cannot match Johnson for form or ability to control the ball and navigate a way around a difficult golf course.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Daly tb Hoey +105 (W); Woodland tb Pettersson +145 (L); Wilson tb Grace +115 (W); Campbell tb Hoey +100 (W); Yang tb Jaidee +115 (L); Senden tb Curtis +100 (W); Mulroy tb Morrison +100 (L); Cochran tb Slattery +100 (V); Stanley tb Rock +100 (W); Love tb Lawrie +110 (L)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Hunter Mahan to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +108 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 6
Opposing Colsaerts who lies 2nd after the opening round. He got off to a great start by holing his approach shot at the 2nd hole and he was very upbeat about his game in his post-round interview, but he only hit eight fairways off the tee, less than the average for the whole field. When you stray from the fairway on this course, it becomes a matter of luck whether you have a shot to the green. Today, he had that luck, tomorrow the European Tour's longest driver of the ball cannot be expected to be as lucky. This is only his fourth major as well - he missed the cut in his first two and even though he played well for a couple of rounds in the U.S. Open last month, he struggled in the final round on a tough course. The same should happen again for the Belgian. Mahan was much more in control off the tee today, missing just two fairways all day, and has the game to do well in this event. He starts the 2nd round five shots back in 37th place, but I'd expect the gap to be much smaller by the end of tomorrow's round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Senden tb Colsaerts +115 (W); Donaldson tb Lawrie +138 (L); Love tb Lawrie +125 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Brandt Snedeker -138 @ Ladbrokes, William Hill, BetVictor and BlueSq [available generally]  WON by 5
Not finding as much value in this round, so will opt for just a small play on Snedeker to struggle tomorrow. He has held the lead once after rd1 on the PGA Tour and failed to win, he has held the lead five times after rd2 on the PGA Tour and failed to win, he has held the lead twice after rd3 on the PGA Tour and failed to win, so I am struggling to see how he can win from the front in a Major Championship. He had never even made the cut in three previous attempts in this event, so he is hardly a links specialist. Admittedly, he was very impressive today, but it will be a different ball-game tomorrow when he has to defend from the front, particularly with Tiger and Adam Scott also playing well and in close contention.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Graeme McDowell +114 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  TIED
Once again, struggling to find much value in this round, so will opt for another small play for the final round. McDowell certainly got some momentum going over the last six holes, but it was Scott who looked in complete control as soon as he had overtaken Snedeker at the top of the leaderboard. There has scarely been any weakness in his game so far this week - most strikingly in his driver which has resulted in him being able use that club off the tee unlike Tiger. Admittedly, this will be the last round of a Major Championship and Scott has yet to win one, but in the 16 times that he has held the lead heading into the final round since 2002, he has gone to win 13 times. Compare that with McDowell who is 1-for-12 when either 2nd or 3rd after 54 holes. Yes, that one success was in the 2010 U.S. Open, but he held a share of the lead with Jim Furyk at this year's U.S. Open and struggled to a 73 and finished 2nd. Nearly misses have become all to common for McDowell - his last win was in the 2010 Andalucia Masters, since then he had nine top-3 finishes without winning. The wind may finally blow or McDowell may get off to a very fast start, but otherwise I can only see Scott remaining in control of this tournament.