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R1 18H Match Bets, all to 0.5 Pt Stakes Sell Bubba Watson over Yoshinori Fujimoto at 8 (Sporting Index) M/U 22, Loss 7 Pts Fujimoto's Japan Tour record this year has four Top 7's in seven starts and, appreciating that Japan Tour form is completely different from the Open Championship, there is many instances in the past when players from this tour have performed far better than expected. Watson has broken 72 only once in eight Open rounds so the 8 point start for the Japanese player is fair. Sell Carl Pettersson over K T Kim at 4 (Spreadex) M/U 22, Loss 9 Pts Pettersson is more suited to birdie fest US events and regularly contends in events where sub 20 under is a winning score. His record here is poor, albeit so is Kim's, but we are betting on the score between these two, not how they do overall. A handicap of 4 is too big, as 1-4 would be a more realistic price. Sell Francesco Molinari over Toshinori Muto at 12 (Spreadex or Sporting) M/U -16, Profit 14 Pts Muto has played outside Japan once this year, in the windy event at Waialae in Hawaii where a 72-68 score over two days wasnt enough to get him into the weekend but showed that he wasnt overawed. In two previous Open starts he has failed to make the weekend. Molinari has 2 2nd placed finishes in his last 2 starts but, bar a 13th at Turnberry in 2009, has failed to make the weekend in 3 other starts and his average score in those 3 was on a par with Muto's. It's a speculative play but the upside is so large. R2 Sell Lee Westwood over Yoshinori Fujimoto at 12 (Spreadex) M/U 0, Profit 6 Pts A winner by 2 today, Fujimoto is only one point less in his rematch with Westwood, who played very poorly by his standards on the back 9 this afternoon. Sell Tiger Woods over Justin Rose at 4 (Spreadex) M/U 19, Loss, 7.5 Pts Rose had a very poor round today and it was beginning to look like it would be much higher than the 74 it eventually became. Woods was -4 for 7 holes and played the last 11 in 1 over. Their stats in the recent past suggest that a 4 point start for Rose is value 2-3-0 -3.5Pts |
