Dubai Desert Classic

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1-2; -4.08pts  (system plays: 3-8-2) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Thomas Bjorn -102 @ Unibet  LOST by 4
It would not be obvious to oppose Bjorn in the Dubai Desert Classic - he is someone who spends a lot of time here and is a 'Golf in Dubai' ambassador, but that is factored into the price. However, a closer examination of his form in the UAE shows that although he did finish 3rd in the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship last month, he had previously only had one other top-10 finish since 2003 (16 starts). Molinari's last four starts in the UAE have resulted in finishes of 6th, 8th, 6th, and 8th. In fact he has played in this country nine times since the start of the 2009 season and finished in the top-30 every time; Bjorn has played in the same tournaments and missed the cut in four of those nine times. Bjorn has the reputation of being a desert golfer, but Molinari is certainly more worth of it.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Dyson tb Lawrie Pa +100 (L); Drysdale tb Gagli +100 (W); Edfors tb Willett -105 (W); Hansen A tb Bjorn -105 (L); Rock tb Coetzee -105 (L)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Thomas Bjorn +105 @ Unibet  LOST by 3
Okay, this didn't look like such a good play after Bjorn finished the 1st round in 4th place, but Molinari more than matched the Dane from tee-to-green: he ranked 1st in greens in regulation on the first day, missing the green in regulation just once and that cost him his only dropped shot of the round. He has the better record in the UAE and he is playing better. At plus-odds that should mean value.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Van Zyl tb Cabrera-Bello +100 (L); Dyson tb Bjorn +138 (L); Wall tb Olesen -105 (W); Colsaerts tb Bjorn +130 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Ben Curtis to beat Romain Wattel +100 @ Unibet  WON by 3
Opposing Wattel in this round; a double-bogey at the penultimate hole will be an unwelcome overnight thought as he got himself into such a good leaderboard position. But he has been here before and not played particularly well - five previous times he has started the weekend in the top-20 on this Tour and his best 3rd round score has been 71. Much more solid golf from Curtis who has yet to drop a single shot this week.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Lawrie Pe tb Maybin +108 (T); Molinari F tb Colsaerts +100 (L); Jaidee tb Noh +108 (L); Siem tb Gallacher +100 (T)]

No round 4 plays.