Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

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Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Fedez-Castano - 5.5 points @ 10-11 (Stan James)

Fedez-Castano cost me money as well as face when winning last time out in Italy but, despite looking like he was substituted on every green, I remain unconvinced by his displays with the short stick.

I could get this very wrong but given his suspect putting for well over a year, I simply have to oppose him with any legitimate candidate on a course (or rather set of courses) that cannot suit his game and where he only has a solitary 15th to show in his last eight attempts.

On the other hand (Brian?), his fellow Spaniard has long looked like picking up a second win this season and has the right profile to go very close. Long and straight, he will certainly enjoy the medium length par fours that will come, especially at the Old Course and he may simply score too heavily for his oppo.

I felt as though Cabrera Bello's 2nd in Ireland was as good an effort as his actual victory in Dubai, as he chased Jamie Donaldson the entire way before succumbing to a player that could do no wrong (and who also has huge claims this week). That all fits into the type of player required and he does remind me of the likes of Michael Hoey who gagged up here last year.

Whatever his fate overall, there look to be far less negatives against him and certainly enough against Gonzo to take him at each-of-two.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Martin Kaymer - 3 points at 11-10 (Hills)

I am hugely tempted to take on Martin Kaymer this week. The media attention will be unprecedented and whilst he has shown snippets of form amongst rubbish, that single putt last Sunday has been taken completely out of context with the rest of his play last week. Given the partying as well as the vast amount of extra work that he and the other two Ryder Cup victors will have to do, it is hard to see him giving his all and not reacting at some point over the weekend even given his fine course figures. 

The reason this isn't a main bet is not through lack of confidence about his oppo, but that the German won this event after winning the 2010 Ryder Cup. He isn't in anything like the same form but it is enough to stop me going in heavier.

Donaldson loves Links, loves the wind and the rain and, most importantly, gets results in these conditions. Another who is similar in style to Hoey, he has major claims this week, and although his outright price is now too short, he should not be the outsider here this week. 

Two top-tens here in his last four tries here reads well but he is a much better player now and has taken huge self-belief from that win in the Irish Open where he was simply perfect throughout the entire weekend. Top ten in the PGA was a stunning effort and whilst he indicates that he may well try to become full-time on the PGA Tour, the short break in Europe will have him raring to go. He was a never closing 21st in the KLM last month but expect him to kick on from here on in, and keep an eye out for him in Dubai; I am convinced we may see him lift another trophy before his exodus.