Open de France

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0-3; -10.96pts  (system plays: 5-1-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Fabrizio Zanotti +100 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
Zanotti is in good form having finished 12th in the BMW International Open and 2nd in the Irish Open in the last two weeks. Presumably, that is why he is priced as the favourite in this matchup, despite being 100 places lower in the World Rankings. But those were on very different courses to Le Golf National, where the rough is much more penal that at Gut Larchenhof and there is no resemblance at all to the links of Royal Portrush. So, with Zanotti failing to break par in any of his previous ten rounds at Le Golf National and Luiten having a dominant 13-5-1 h2h record over the past 12 months, I'll ignore the most recent form and back the Dutchman who finished 2nd a month ago in Wales.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Manassero tb Grace -110 (W); Hansen tb Willett -105 (W)]

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Marcel Siem to beat Anders Hansen +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and BetVictor]  LOST by 4
I don't expect Siem to hang on to the lead during the 3rd round, but I still think that he will be there or thereabouts for the rest of the weekend. So this is a play against Hansen - other than the fact that siem has two top-10 finishes since the BMW PGA Championship whereas Hansen is 3-for-3 in missed cuts over that period, the main reason to oppose Hansen can summarised by his own post-round 2 interview: "This year has not been good at all. My ball‑striking has not been great. I've been struggling a bit in my swing" ... "And now with the wind picking up, it may be difficult and the swing may fall apart a little bit." ... "Starting to reach out there; playing next week, but thought, I have to, got to get my tournaments up there, or else I'm going to lose my card. You've got to play 13 events." ... "I pulled out of a couple tournaments due to just haven't felt great about the golf game and a few personal problems."

Round 4 play (4pts):

Henrik Stenson to beat Marcel Siem -124 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 3
Siem struggled as the overnight leader and I can't see him bouncing back from today's display. Stenson's loss of form appears to be behind him now - he has finished 13th and 6th in his last two events and, as well as being 6th after three rounds this week, he leads the field in greens in regulation, so his ball-striking is good. He is certainly sounding much more confident in his interviews and knows that a top-5 finish could secure a place in the Open Championship in two weeks' time.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Jacquelin tb Coetzee +110 (W); Hansen tb Coetzee -105 (W); Jacquelin tb Howell -110 (W); Hansen tb Howell -110 (L)]