Irish Open

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Simon Dyson to beat Matteo Manessaro - 7 points @ Evs (BetVictor)

Windy, probably wet, and a classic Links course that could well hold The Open in the future - all criteria for a certain type of player and Dyce is one of those. He says Links is his favourite golf course by far and has already bagged a win at St. Andrews as well as a host of good finishes on other Open tracks. Courtesy of his win at this event last season, although over a different track, he will be carried on the wave of enthusiasm that follows his playing partners Pod and G-Mac. In and out of form before recently, he says he is ready to compete and is improving after slightly surprisingly making the cut in the US Open. He finished 12th last week after a sub-par final round finishing 4th in putting, is certainly looking forward to this and should be outscoring the young Italian under these conditions.

Like many young players, Matteo has not quite lived up to expectations this year but that is often the case after a superb opening season. He will certainly be back winning, but it may be on a park course, with tight fairways, and where his driving accuracy earns shots over the field. Matteo threw away a couple of real chances to win just a couple of months ago and recent form is very average. Little true form on Links and he is looking dubious to make the cut if the weather turns very poor. This doesn't look anything like an each-of-two. 

Padraig Harrington to beat Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell - 2 points @ 2-1 (Skybet)

I was looking to be against Rory where possible and in the 72-hole matches this looks the best value. Forget what he did as a kid here and concentrate on recent form. Most punters will know Rory's talent and on early season form he is a major runner on that alone but he has since travelled downhill fast, finishing nowhere in his last few events and only 40th/mc/mc in his last three true top-class events. Whether for personal reasons or not he will do very well to be buoyed enough by the home crowd to go close here, especially given that his high ball flight does not lend itself to gusts of wind.

That leaves GMac and Pod, both players in form but the latter looking almost certain to win soon and far more reliable in these conditions.

GMac hasn't been convincing in a finish when in with a chance and although he looked excellent for most of the US Open, he faded when it mattered, coming away dissapointed. Although he made the final of the Matchplay he was certainly fortunate, having not looked in the top four on play alone and whilst he is another who will be loving every minute of returning 'home', there is a well worn path of failing home favourites in almost every event. He must go well and is strongly fancied to beat Rory in a match but he may struggle to out-scramble the ultimate scrambler in Pod.

Pod's form has a very progressive look to it with five top-15s in his last eight outings, including 8th in The Masters and 4th in the US Open. That latter effort is Pod through and through, closing on the leaders through sheer grit under tough conditions and whilst he openly says his short game needs work, he has a history of finding his best on Open class Links. Although this event has sometimes come away from that type of track, his Irish Open record reads far better than his rivals - a win in 2007, three runner-up finishes and a number of top 15s - and his four sub-70 rounds at the Travelers last weekend will give him great confidence, that 11th place a very decent finish on a far from ideal course. I cannot find a price for him to beat just Rory McIlroy but the 2-1 here looks terrific value and the worse the weather turns, the better he will go.