Italian Open

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2-1; +2.48pts  (system plays: 1-0-0)

Round 1 play (2pts):

Anders Hansen to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 1
Top-15 finishes in his last three starts and, ignoring Major Championships, his last five regular Tour starts, point to Hansen being a good player to back in matchups. While Olesen has had a very good summer and has a good record in Italy, he did struggle in his last outing, missing the cut in the European Masters. At these odds, I'll side with the more consistent player.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Johan Edfors to beat Andrea Pavan +125 @ BetVictor  WON by 5
Edfors finished the first round in the top-10; Pavan 47th, ranking outside the top-100 in greens in regulation. Edfors has finished ahead of Pavan in five of their last six common events (and shot the lower 2nd round score in five of those six events) and Pavan hasn't finished in the top-50 in any event since April. In short, I don't see why Pavan should be such a large favourite in this matchup.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Fernandez-Castano tb Manassero +100 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Alex Cejka to beat Scott Jamieson +110 @ SkyBet [also available @ Bet365 and Expekt]  TIED
Big difference in how well these two have played so far this week: Cejka ranks 1st in driving accuracy, 1st in greens in regulation, plus 1st in sand saves; Jamieson ranks 78th, 82nd and 106th in those categories this week.  They are both currently tied in 22nd place only because Jamieson has been putting very well so far, but Cejka hasn't. At these odds, I'll back a player who has made 10 of their last 12 cuts to have a better day on the greens than a player who has missed more than half of his last 12 cuts.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes and Paddy Power]  LOST by 5
Cabrera-Bello in 3rd place versus Fernandez-Castano in 2nd ... two angles here: (i) Cabrera-Bello is very good in this position - he has started the final round in top-3 three times in the past year and finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd; GFC's last three times that he has been in the top-3 with one round to play and resulted in a best finish of 5th - the last time that he finished in the top-3 from this position was back in 2009; (ii) similar to today's play, Cabrera-Bello is the current leader in greens in regulation, GFC ranks 50th ... it is clear who is playing the better golf this week.