Italian Open

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A major error last week and I should have stuck with opposing the out-of-form Martin Kaymer. Nevertheless, mention must be made of the winner Peter Hanson, who overcame the worry of his young son being in hospital with a brilliant display over the weekend. 

Similar thoughts are prominent this week with a real urge to get with Niclas Colsaerts, but the oddsmakers have only offered him up against home favourite Francesco Molinari and that is a no-bet match. Should they wish to shove the Belgian in with anyone else, he should become a bet. 

One last thing. Keep your eye out for Challenge Tour sensation Kris Broberg, hugely overpriced at 100-1 in a place. He may not win this week but a low scoring putters paradise is exactly what he needs.

Freddie Anderson-Hed to beat Thomas Aiken - 3 points @ 5-6 (Bet365)

The Swede was fancied to go well last week in Holland after a run that included 3rd in Scotland and a runner-up position in Switzerland. However, 'Ted Rogers' rarely comes up and he duly missed the cut after a pair of 71's. This week should see previous service resumed with Hed taking to the course with memories of the last two years - a win followed by 15th, a fine effort when defending. Given this course does have a history of rewarding length - Daly, Vancsik, Colsaerts all appear in the final board over the last couple of years - Hed does have a slight advantage over his oppo in that respect, even discounting he is a hot but streaky putter.. 

Lowry doesn't look like winning despite a couple of notable finishes and is usually a player that goes backwards when in with a chance. He has no course form here and shouldn't have anything like his ideal conditions this week , rain and wind.

Pablo Larrazabal to beat Gonzo Fernandez-Castano - 6 points at Evens (Betvictor)

No idea how these can be evens each-of-two. Gonzo's claims seem to rest on one effort, last weeks fifth, which was a lesson in how not to finish off an event. It isn't the first time he has done this and despite being a multiple winner on Tour does throw away many chances to add to his silverware. His driving isn't really long enough to make an impact here, his form previous to last week was average and he seems to have no advantage over his mecurial rival.

Pablo is typical Latin in his play. It is fun, exciting, sometimes brilliant and sometimes exasperating! Although his run-in was less than perfect last week he did, at most times, demostrate an ability to get the job done. His set of stats look far better than Gonzo's, with driving and putting much the superior and it will not hurt that he has experience here, with 11th here last year courtesy of two rounds of 67 and 65 -  low rounds that will be needed here this week. I do not see any disadvantage in the play.