Nordea Masters

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3-1; +8.00pts  (system plays: 2-1-0)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Ross Fisher to beat Jonas Blixt +100 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor]  WON by 3
Fisher was the centre of controversy on Sunday when he repeatedly exceeded the time allowed after being warned and so incurred a one-shot penalty. However, I don't expect his game to suffer from that, at least not in the first round. It certainly helps that this event starts on Wednesday and not Thursday so he can move on from that controversy quicker, but his game had been showing signs of improvement before last week. It takes time to adjust to an equipment change and, apart from Sunday's controversy, I expect him to continue playing well. His opponent is a difficult player to call. He has played well on the PGA Tour this year - four top-15 finishes in a row before his missed cut at The Memorial last week - but he hasn't played in Europe since 2008 when his missed five of eight cuts. In his home country, he has missed all five cuts, the last being in 2007, so it should be difficult for him to carry over his American form to Sweden this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fraser tb Olesen +138 (L); Cabrera-Bello tb Blixt -111 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Jeev Milkha Singh to beat Johan Edfors -105 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Easy to oppose Edfors who has missed five out of his last seven cuts, hasn't shot 70 or less in his last ten rounds and hasn't broken par in eight of nine rounds around Bro Hof Slott. Singh was 6th here last year and looks more likely to bounce back tomorrow after both had poor first rounds.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Singh tb Van Zyl +120 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Kristoffer Broberg to beat Gregory Havret +165 @ Expekt [available generally]  LOST by 3
Taking a speculative punt on the home player in this matchup. He currently plays on the Swedish satellite Tour - the Nordea Tour - for which the top-5 will earn their Tour Cards on the Challenge Tour next year and the top-6 progress to the second stage of the European Tour Qualifying School; Broberg currently lies 5th in the rankings. He made his debut on this Tour in this event last year when he finished 29th and played his first Challenge Tour event last month and finished in the top-10. Just to demonstrate how good his form has been, he led the Sunday qualifying for this event a course record 10-under-par 62. Having secured a top-30 finish here last year, I think he can use that experience to secure another one this year and has a better chance of beating Havret than these odds suggest. The Frenchman is yet to secure a top-10 finish this year and missed the cut in his previous visit to Bro Hof Slott.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Gregory Havret to beat Carlos Del Moral -111 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Havret was very impressive for his 68 today and I'll back him to continue that form tomorrow. He lies alongside Del Moral in 7th place and has a much better record in this position. Whereas Del Moral has started the final round in the top-10 eight times on the European Tour, he has never broken 70 in the final round from this position and managed to retin his top-10 spot just twice. By contract, Havret has remained in the top-10 in 17 of the last 18 times that he has started the final round in the top-10, including five times last year when he shot 70 or better every time.