DP World Tour Championship

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3-4; -1.90pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat Justin Rose +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James and Bet365]  LOST by 1
Twice a winner on the European Tour since September, Hanson is certainly playing well enough to win again this week. He has come close on this course - his finishes in the three years here read 9th, 13th and 4th and he was the first round leader last year. Rose may rank above him in the World Rankings (7th vs 19th), but in his one previous visit to this course, only six players finished below him on the leaderboard. 

Pablo Larrazabal to beat Stephen Gallacher +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 2
Similar course histories in this matchup - Larrazabal finished in the top-10 on his debut last year; Gallacher finished 51st of 60 in his previous visit. Back in form with a top-10 finish last week and a 13-8-0 h2h record against Gallacher in 2012, I'm surprised to see the home player as the underdog in this matchup.

David Drysdale to beat Lee Slattery +100 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 3
Slattery makes his debut on this course and, even though he won the 2011 Madrid Masters, he has missed four of his last six cuts in Spain. Drysdale does have experience from playing here in 2010 and has missed just one cut in Spain in his last 15 visits, a period that includes two top-3 finishes in Spain. With Drysdale also boasting a 12-6-0 h2h against Slattery (10-5-3 in rd1) over the last 12 months, I'll gladly take the plus-odds on offer.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Louis Oosthuizen +102 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 7
Surprised to see plus-odds on Westwood in this matchup. Both have been playing well recently and both shot 67 to lie 5th after the 1st round, but Westwood boasts a particularly impressive record on this course, winning the inaugural event in 2010 with a 72-hole record for this course, finishing 3rd in 2011 and also being the joint course record holder (64).

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Stephen Gallacher +105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 1
Once again seeing the value in the underdog. Gallacher had a surprisingly good score in rd1, having previously finished outside the top-50 here, but he still ranked only 45th in green in regulation and 54th (of 56) in scrambling, so it is unclear how he managed to score so well. If he plays as poorly off-the-green again tomorrow, he should struggle and shouldn't beat Jaidee who finished 8th here last year and has a 11-4-0 h2h record against the Scot in rd2 over the last 12 months.

Marcus Fraser to beat Branden Grace +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 2
43rd and 62nd in his last two starts (both were limited field events) and making his debut on this course, Grace is another who struggled around the Earth course - he ranked last in greens in regulation today. Coming off a 3rd place finish last week, Fraser is the in-form player in this matchup and it is a surprise that he is the underdog.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Donald tb McIlroy +110 (L)]

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat George Coetzee -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Opposing Coetzee who will start the final round in the top-10 for the ninth time this year, but in the previous eight occasions he has broken 70 just once in the final round; Hanson looks set for his fourth top-15 finish in four attempts on this course.

Padraig Harrington to beat Branden Grace -111 @ Bet365  TIED
Harrington has dominated this matchup in 2012 over the weekend, shooting the higher 3rd or 4th round score than Grace just once. With Grace also not having a good record when at least five shots off the pace with one round to play, the value should be with Harrington tomorrow.