UBS Hong Kong Open

Subscribe

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Raphael Jacquelin - 6 points @ 5-6 (Stan James)

At over 7600 yards, the Earth Course offers a huge advantage to long hitters and whilst (painful for me) recent winner Robert Karlsson couldn't match the efforts of Quiros of the tee a year later,  four of the top five longest hitters finished in the top half-dozen. Already there is compelling evidence for going with the Spaniard in this match, and that is without further positives.

Cabrera-Bello ranks 19th in total driving over the past three months, some 100+ places above his rival whilst he also destroys him for ball-striking, ranking  well ahead of his rival who languishes in 103rd.  Okay, stats lies and damn statistics but we are coming to the 'right' time of year for the selection, victorious in Dubai last season and improving slowly here with efforts of 30/26 when still learning his trade. Cabrera-Bello doesn't look the finished article by some way but when able to rip it from the tee, as in the Irish Open and Johnnie Walker, he can score low - something that will be needed here.

Recent form may not be outstanding but this track will suit far better than the shorter fiddly type of recent weeks and he should really have the game to outscore his rival.

Even forgetting the basic stats, Jacquelin has a bit to find. With nothing like his rivals potential improvement, just one round under 70 here in three starts means a best of 21st in three starts and it does seem as though Jacquelin will be playing much longer clubs around the scoring holes with pressure on his scrambling will be needed to keep the score going. A poor record in the UAE is further evidence that his game simply is not a  match for these tracks and tghis does look very one-sided if the selection can turn up with his A-game. 

Luke Donald to beat Rory McIlroy - 4 points @ 5-4 (Bet Victor)

Not much needs to be said about the top two players in the world, but Donald seems in a much better place than Rory and he is confidently expected to be a serious challenger this week and certainly to finish above a player who just seems to have lost his edge.

This could be a wonderful match to watch down the stretch on Sunday, with Donald being a very proud recent winner and determined to land his last event of 2012. Given his recent form and last weeks romp in the Dunlop Pheonix, it looks as if he has retrieved his top iron play and is back to the ultra reliable scrambler and putter of early season.

The key to Luke seems to be the accuracy off the tee for he is long enough to compete given a chance to nail those approach shots, and finishes of 9th and 3rd over the last two seasons are further proof of his immense consistency and suitability round here. Last season he started with an average 72, but rushed through the field with a pair of 66's and his efforts lately are not short of top drawer. There is no reason to expect anything less than is on the card.

Third in the lucrative Tour Championship, he has rattled off a far East run of 3/18/1 and although he is up against the best prospect in the game (even if already proven), he is overpriced at 5-4 in what is effectively a your-pick match.

Obviously it is difficult to pick long-range faults in Rory's game but lately he seems to be short of his best and it won't do against a top-form Donald. The three mid-season wins in The States were impressive but lately the 2nd and 3rd in the Far East seemed to show frailities not seen before. Perhaps the controversy over the change of clubs or the holiday mindset overtook complete concentration of his golf game but he simply had to waltz through a final day in Singapore to become confirmed joint European and PGA number one and never really looked like getting to the front in either, losing a challenging position in the BMW before coming again late.

Last weeks missed-cut around tricky Fanling was awful with his short game all over the place, and he will have to get himself up again just a week later. He undoubtedly has the confidence in himself but I wonder if doubts will creep in given the various issues in the media. Indeed, if he can play a shocker in favoured Fanling, why fare any better round another favoured track? It is almost certain that he can shake anything off, but something is not quite right and whilst he may beat the vast majority of this field on natural talent alone, it may not be enough to beat Loooooook.