Wales Open

Subscribe

2-1; +4.00pts  (system plays: 2-2-1) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Ross Fisher to beat Danny Willett +100 @ Bet365  WON by 8
Two players who are not in the greatest form of their careers - Fisher has missed his last two cuts, while Willett has a couple of 79s in his last events - but the venue should favour Fisher. He does have a top-10 finish here (2008), but more importantly this was the scene of his Ryder Cup debut. By contrast, Willett's last four rounds around the Twenty-Ten course have been 75-75-76-80.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Hansen tb Manassero -105 (L); Noren tb Coetzee -110 (L)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Marcus Fraser to beat George Coetzee +150 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 6
Not sure why Fraser is such a big price against Coetzee. Both are well-placed after the 1st round, 8th and 12th respectively, but this is the first time that Coetzee has played well on this course. He has appeared here in each of the last two years, but shot 73-80 in 2010 and 75-78 last year to miss the cut by eight and nine shots respectively. Fraser finished well ahead of him on both occasions and, even though he missed the cut by a shot at Wentworth last week, he had finished 3rd in his previous start. Given Coetzee's previous struggles on this course, I would expect Fraser to be a small favourite, so these are very generous.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Manassero tb Coetzee +100 (W)]

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Ross Fisher -120 @ 5Dimes and Bet365  WON by 1
It is very rare that I make a play based on an reported injury, but this would have been the top play even without that information. Fisher looked very poor today, particularly off the tee and there was a good reason for it: stubbed his toe in his hotel room on Friday night. "One of the toes is as purple as anything. I iced it and two of the toes were strapped together, but I hit it everywhere and I'm glad to finish." But Fisher would have been a go-against player anyway. He now lies 2nd alongside Luiten, but he is 0-for-19 when in the top-5 at the start of the final round, but not leading. In those 19 rounds, he has broken 70 just once and averages 72.95. He has remained in the top-5 until the end of the tournament in just nine of those 19 situations. By contrast, Luiten is 7-for-7 in terms of finishing in the top-5 in the same situation and has never shot more than 70 when starting a fourth round in the top-5.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Manassero tb Coetzee -110 (T); Lynn tb Foster -111 (W)]