Irish Open

Subscribe

2-2; +0.00pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Paul Lawrie +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
The defending champion and already a winner in 2013, Donaldson is worth backing as an underdog in this matchup: over the last year, he holds a 12-2-2 h2h lead over Lawrie in the 1st round alone.

Padraig Harrington to beat Graeme McDowell +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Bet365 and Stan James]  TIED
Harrington is another former winner of this event (2007) who has also finished 2nd in this event three times since 2001 and was 5th and 11th when this course was used in 2005 and 2006. He has shown good form recently - 10th in the St Jude Classic, 21st in the U.S. Open and 2nd after two rounds last week in the Travelers Championship - unlike McDowell has missed his last three cuts and has never finished in the top-10 in this event in 11 attempts.

Paul Lawrie to beat Shane Lowry +100 @ Paddy Power  [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 4
Opposing a former winner in this matchup, but has otherwise struggled in this event. Lawrie was in the top-10 with a round to play when this course was last used and should be a live underdog against a player well below him in the World Rankings.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Molinari tb Lowry -115 (L); Donaldson tb Sterne -111 (W)]

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Ricardo Santos to beat Robert Rock +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]  TIED
Opposing Rock who holds a share of the lead after 36 holes. He has been in this position three times previously and has yet to win, so I'll take these odds on Santos (who is 3rd) to beat him. Since the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in January, Rock has finished a tournament ahead of Santos just once in nine common events.

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Oscar Floren -107 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  TIED
Two more players in 3rd place. This is the fifth time that Floren has started the weekend in the top-5 on the European Tour: he has finished 52nd, 5th, 36th, 63rd - with the exception of the weak Sicilian Open in 2011, he has always struggled to convert these chances when on the main Tour and I think that it will happen again. Given the weather forecast, Olazabal should have enough guile and experience to stay in contention a little longer.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Paul Casey to beat Robert Rock -123 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 4
Two players with different momentums after Vasey jumped 12 places to 4th today while Rock fell out of the lead and down to 3rd. I don't see him bouncing back tomorrow, but with a runners-up finish already on this course, Casey could be a much stronger challenger for this title. 

Peter Lawrie to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello -111 @ Bet365  TIED
With Lowry's poor 3rd round, Lawrie is the leading home player in this event, just as he was two years when he finished in the top-10. He leads the event in driving accuracy and he led the field today in greens in regulation, so he is playing well enough to retain his lead at the top of the 'home' leaderboard.

Andrew Dodt to beat Alan Dunbar @ Paddy Power  [available generally]  LOST by 2
Dodt has finished behind Dunbar just once in his career, which is not surprising as the Irish winner of the 2012 Amateur Championship has a best finish of 56 in 12 Tour events. Currently 21st, it should be a much more nervous experience tomorrow for him than Dodt.