Portugal Masters

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Shane Lowry to beat Martin Kaymer and Bernd Wiesberger - 3 points @ 2-1 (Skybet)

It is only Tommy Fleetwood's missed-cut here last season that stops him becoming a bet this week. That form looks easy to discard given his run since his maiden win, but nevertheless, he is just left out (in the hope he goes and wins the whole event anyway).

Not much else makes appeal at odds-on but I am not sure Shane Lowry should be 2-1 outsider in his trio matchup and as such is worth a shekel or two.

Oppo's Martin Kaymer and Bernd Wiesberger both seem below form somewhat, and in the case of the former that does mean a fall in the quality of his overall play once on the fairway. Given this is an attacking course where decent iron play needs to be followed up with high-class putting, he makes no appeal, especially after last seasons missed-cut.

The Austrian is another to have fallen from a pedestal this season. He has had plenty of chances but his iron play when under pressure has been poor, whilst the putting stats also fail to make the grade. Bernd led here last season before a poor final round 75 and his temperament doesn't seem to have improved and is in question for the moment.

Irishman Lowry has no negatives with any of those statistics. Being defending Champ is the only possible negative although he clearly enjoys his golf and doesn't ever appear to be under severe pressure. Lowry attacks everything and should be able to live with his oppo's on the par-5s. Lowry's driving is long, his putting consistent and he'll have great memories of his first 'proper' win of his career. In his last eight rounds here, he has only shot as high as 70 once, and he arrives with a run of 10/26/3 believing he is playing the best golf of his career. Outsider of three?