18-Hole Match Picks - European Tour |
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2-0; +4.00pts Round 1 play (2pts): George Coetzee to beat Branden Grace +100 @ Bet365 and Paddy Power WON by 1 Small play on just one 1st round matchup. Coetzee did finish behind Grace last week, but he hadn't been behind him all week until Sunday. In fact, that is common trend in this matchup: Coetzee has a 10-6 h2h lead over Grace in rd1 over the last 12 months outside South Africa, which is strongly reversed in rd2, even more strongly reversed again in rd3 (9-1 in Coetzee's favour) and then reversed once more in rd4. With Coetzee having finished ahead of his compatriot when they both made their debuts last year and the course favouring those with extra length off the tee, there should be some value in taking the underdog in this rd1 matchup. No round 2 plays. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (2pts): Peter Hanson to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes and Paddy Power] TIED Hanson at plus-odds is normally a good vaue bet in any European Tour matchup. He has six top-25 finishes in his last seven starts, and that includes two wins, and he hasn't missed a cut since June. He has finished ahead of Stenson in six of their last seven common events and he finished 2nd in this event last year. At 23rd on the leaderboard, he is too far back to match that performance. but with a record of shooting 70 or better in the final round in each of his last eight events, he should certainly improve on his current position. Justin Rose to beat Louis Oosthuizen +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James] WON by 4 Two players moving in opposite directions on the leaderboard and maybe that is not a surprise given Rose's week last week, but every time that he fell down the leaderboard in rd3 last year, he always shot a sub-par score in rd4 and finished the final round in a higher position than a day earlier. That ability to perform in the final round even when he has not had a great week is evidenced by a dominant h2h record against Oosthuizen: since the start of the 2011 season, Rose leads Oosthuizen 14-1-1 h2h in the final round.
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