Wales Open

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1-4; -10.00pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Mark Foster to beat Peter Uihlein -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Easy to oppose course debutant Uihlein who has travelled across the Atlantic and back in the last month and missed his last three cuts. Foster has finished 5th and 28th in his last two starts and is a regular in this event, making the cut in each of the last seven years and all five years that the Twenty Ten course has been used. He has also started the final round inside the top-10 on two of those five years on this course, so it clearly suits his game.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

David Howell to beat Brooks Koepka +115 @ 5Dimes  LOST (Howell wd)
Backing Howell to bounce back from a poor 1st round. He has been in good form recently - a top-10 finish in the Open de France and a top-20 finish in last week's Johnnie Walker Championship in his last three starts - and his record when outside the top-100 after rd1 is very good: 71-68-71-71-70 including twice in the last three months. At these odds, he looks good value to bounce back tomorrow.

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Romain Wattel +110 @ Stan James  TIED
A similar story in this matchup with Gonzalez 111th and and Wattel 48th after rd1, but it was Gonzalez who hit far more greens in regulation today with Wattel ranking outside the top-100 in that category. A playoff loser last week, the Argentinean is in good form and with a 4th place finish two years ago, this is a course on which he has played well previously and so is more likely to do so tomorrow.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Johan Edfors to beat Robert Rock +130 @ Bet365 and Boyle Sports [available generally]  LOST by 1
This is Rock's first cut made in five starts and his tee-to-green play this week has been indicative of that lack of form recently - he leads the field in scrambling and sand save percentage so his short game has saved him so far this week. Only Espen Kofstad has hit more greens in regulation this week than Edfors so he is clearly playing much better than his opponent and could even match his top-5 finish of two years ago. 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Joost Luiten +130 @ Bet365, Boyle Sports and Coral [available generally]  LOST by 3
Opposing Luiten at this price. He has started the final round inside the top-10 on ten previous occasions since last year, but has failed to break 70 in any of those final rounds and hasn't improved his leaderboard position in any of those ten occasions. Cabrera-Bello has a 6-3-1 h2h record against Luiten in rd4 over the past 12 months, so the value should be with the Spanish player.

Alexandre Kaleka to beat Tjaart Van Der Walt +115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Opposing Van Der Walt who is 12th after three rounds, but ranks 61st in greens in regulation. I'll take these odds to oppose him with a player who finished 2nd in his penultimate event before this week.