China Open

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3-1; +3.80pts  (system plays: 6-3-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Richie Ramsay to beat Hennie Otto -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
A new course, but this will be Ramsay's ninth start in China and he has yet to miss a cut in this country. This will be Otto's four start in China and he has yet to make a cut in this country - he did finish 62nd in the 2012 HSBC Champions, but there was no cut and only 78 players. Ramsay has been in good form recently - he missed the cut last week, but had finished 11th and 2nd in his two previous starts - so he should be able to continue his good record in China.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Willett tb Larrazabal -110 (L)] 

Round 2 play (4pts):

Brett Rumford to beat Mikko Ilonen -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]  LOST by 7
A matchup between last year's winner and the runner-up and both have started this year in the same form - Rumford is 3rd after rd1 and Ilonen 9th. However, this is just a continuation of Rumford's form this year - he has finished 13th, 66th and 11th in his last three starts. Ilonen has finished 33rd (rd1 matchplay exit), 37th and a missed cut last week with rounds of 83 and 79. On that basis, Ilonen's form should be more brittle, so it should be Rumford as the favourite in this rd2 matchup.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Ian Poulter to beat Seve Benson -163 @ ToteSport and BetFred  WON by 9
Backing Poulter to bounce back from today's controversy when he incurred a two-shot penalty for taking an illegal drop (he took two club lengths when only one is permitted for a free drop). He had just taken a double bogey at the previous hole and this led to a triple-bogey on the 13th hole so he dropped from being in contention at 6-under-par to his current position. It all means that he is playing much better than his current position so should be far more likely to shoot the lower round than his playing partner tomorrow.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Molinari F tb Crespi -150 (W); Levy tb Jacquelin -111 (W); Molinari F tb Cabrera-Bello -125 (W); Bourdy tb Rumford -125 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Henrik Stenson to beat Il-Hwan Park -225 @ Bet365 and Stan James [available generally]  WON by 3
I see this matchup being even more one-sided than the odds suggest. Stenson has been in decent form recently with top-20 finishes in three of his last four starts, whereas Park has played in just one primary Tour event in the last six months. He opened with a 68 to end day one in 3rd place, but he has fallen down the leaderboard with each of the next two rounds, securing just three birdies over those 36 holes. With this trajectory, I don't expect the World #719 to be a match for the World #3.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molinari F tb Doak -188 (W); Quesne tb Hoey +100 (L); Bourdy tb Kang J -150 (W); Quiros tb Levy -120 (L)]