Turkish Airlines Open

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Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Shane Lowry - 7.5 points @ 5-6 (Spredex)

I was against Lowry last week when I felt he was out of form - certainly compared to a rampant Alex Levy - and his effort in 34th showed no signs of stopping a real downturn in his form. It seems that since favoured Portugal, where he couldn't strike a blow in a restricted event, Lowry has lost that ability to attack easy pins and, more importantly, to take advantage of any decent iron play. When that approach play is 'decent' it is only in sporadic bursts and suggests a player who is simply struggling and may be looking for the end-of-year break.

In contrast, Olesen won nicely in Perth to break a barren spell that was blighted with injury and a change of clubs, but he was nevertheless frustrated with his play throughout last Sunday at Sheshan when leaving short irons fifteen feet from the pin instead of the clearly expected six or so. The determination was shown on his face throughout the back-nine and that admirable asset is clearly at odds with Lowry's eyes-to-the-sky that is prevalent at the moment.   

The back-to-form Dane looks as if he can win again at some point through his favoured few months. Form at the end of year/beginning of the South African co-sanctioned events seems to be always excellent and ranks far higher than the Irishman's overall form at this time of year. Indeed, it appears the latters best play is during the Summer months and that is borne out with their head-to-head - they are tied 8-8 but the Dane leads 7-2 in events from October through February.

At the end of year shindigs, I always prefer to be with the player still showing progress and whilst they both finished mid-div here last year, I am quite sure which one is still going forwards.