BMW Masters

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6-4; +4.44pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Peter Uihlein to beat Lucas Bjerregaard -118 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 5
Bjerregaard has shown good form recently - four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts - but Uihlein is also in good form - three top-15 finishes in his last four starts - and he dominates this matchup: he leads his Danish opponent 15-6-0 h2h in 2015 (including 12-4-4 h2h in rd1 alone). He also has course experience - he finished 5th in 2013 - whereas Bjerregaard is making his course debut, so the American should be a clear favourite.

Sergio Garcia to beat Matthew Fitzpatrick -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Garcia's consistency makes him a good player to back in matchups and he does have a very good record in China. Not likely to win, but the World #11 should be good value in these markets. Jack Nicklaus-designed courses also tend to favour big-hitters rather than straight-hitters and four of the top-6 year ranked inside the top-5 for driving distance that week, so this course should suit Garcia far more than Fitzpatrick.

Paul Casey to beat Ross Fisher -125 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
The Nicklaus course should certainly suit a player like Casey as well, whose performances on the PGA Tour has seen him get back inside the top-25 in the World Rankings. He has also finished 6th and 8th in his two previous visits to Lake Malaren, so he really should easily beat a player who has missed six of his last seven cuts.  

Paul Casey to beat Danny Willett -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Willett hasn't come close to missing a cut for some time, but he hasn't fared particularly well on this course either. In three attempts, he is yet to record a top-20 finish at Lake Malaren, so is another that Casey should easily beat.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Reed tb Willett -105 (W)] 

Round 2 plays (2pts unless stated):

Wen-Chong Liang to beat Gary Stal +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  WON by 2
Opposing Stal who has just one top-10 finish in the last ten months and that was again a much weaker field than in this event. I doubt that he will be able to defend his current top-20 position given his current form, whereas home player, Liang, had finishes of 2nd and 6th last month and so plays this week with much more confidence in his game.

David Howell to Hao-Tong Li -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 3
Opposing Li who will surely find it difficult after last week's drama - he was only one shot back at the start of the final round of a WGC event in his home country, started that round with a bogey and a double-bogey, but then fought back to finish 7th and so record the highest-ever finish by a Chinese player on the PGA Tour. He is down in 38th place (20 places behind Howell) after rd1 and, also given that he has yet to record a top-40 finish in three attempts in this limited-field event, he looks likely to stay well down the field this week.

James Morrison to beat Julien Quesne -110 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Both players are in 24th place, but Morrison hit his drives further and straighter, hit more greens in regulation and scrambled better than Quesne today. In short, he played far better and on any other day, he would have scored far better than his opponent. That should be remedied tomorrow if Quesne's ball-striking is as poo again tomorrow.

Peter Uihlein to beat Lucas Bjerregaard -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  TIED
A repeat of the rd1 play at better odds. Uihlein should get into this tournament tomorrow; he is a far better player than Bjerregaard.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Stephen Gallacher to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
A small play opposing Cabrera-Bello who has just one top-50 finish in his last six starts and is again outside the top-50 after the first two rounds. Gallacher is in much better form and is more capable of shooting a low score tomorrow.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Patrick Reed to beat Lucas Bjerregaard -155 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 3
The last time that Bjerregaard was 2nd at the start of the final round (2014 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship), he shot 89 in the final round and finished 46th. I'm sure he'll do better this time around, but Reed is a far better player and is set to secure his 4th top-10 finish in as many weeks.

Sergio Garcia to beat Byeong Hun An -135 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3
Again going for proven ability in this matchup between two players in 2nd place. Garcia ranks inside the top-5 for driving distance, accuracy and greens in regulation so far this week (ahead of An in all three categories), so he is also playing better than his opponent.

Ian Poulter to beat Thomas Pieters -118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  TIED
And again backing experience and proven ability at the top of the leaderboard in this matchup between Poulter (6th) and Pieters (11th). Poulter has hit more fairways and greens than Pieters this week and is in good form; he could be a strong challenger for this title.

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Martin Kaymer +105 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle]  WON by 2
A good price to back a player who has finished ahead of his opponent in 18 of their last 25 common events. Oosthuizen is also 4th in the Race to Dubai standings and while he won't earn enough points to catch McIlroy (he needs to finish 2nd and is currently 20th), he is already ahead of Willett (2nd in the Race to Dubai) and Lowry (3rd), so there is still plenty for the South African to achieve with a good round tomorrow.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Wall tb Hebert -135 (L)]