|
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 2 points each-way @ 22-1 (Bet365) With respect to the Italian, when Franceso Molinari is in front on Friday night and as short as 13-5, it's time to play. Reknowned as a player to be on when a handful of shots behind, his record when leading at the end of the second round does not scream 'back me'. From this position five times since 2009 he has converted just once at the, admittedly classy, HSBC Champions in Shanghai some five years ago. Since then he has led or tied the lead three times and unfortunately got worse, dropping to 2nd at the Scottish Open, 9th here in 2013 and at his home Open a few months later when collapsing to 16th and five shots off the winner. Against that is the record of winners around the new Wentworth course over the past few seasons, all of whom have been inside the top-6 at this stage and in the final couple of groups for the final round. That should make it fairly easy to get a short-list of a handful and from that only one player smacks of real value. In truth, this is a strong leaderboard even without the star players involved and a case can be made for a few. On a selfish note, I am hoping 'Ben' An continues his extraordinary improvement and goes on to win. He has every chance on recent form, containing most positions bar that win, hit 17 greens-in-reg today and says he had a birdie putt on every hole - if he carries on like this he may well start to finally complete his graduation from an outstanding amateur career. However, I could not recommend backing a maiden at a best of 7-1, especially with the host of proven winners surrounding him. Emilliano Grillo is another that continues to improve but he struggles to get over the line and is an awful bet at the current price, whilst it will be a real feat if James Morrison can back up last week's victory. In behind the likes of Luiten, Noren and Bjorn are all very experienced, the latter needing to take revenge on this course after his collapse on the final day last season whilst Luke Donald looks a shot too far behind to make his outstanding course form count again and lift his third Wentworth trophy. Given the last named is the same price as the legend that is Miguel Angel Jimenez yet two behind, there is no question where the money goes tonight. Little needs to be added to the career of the flamoyant Spaniard but judged on anything in front of us he should be closer to 16-1 at best. Winner here in 2008, the newer track has proven no real problem with that top-5 in 2014 again proving that once he is in the top-5/10 he rarely makes enough errors to drop away, and his form this year is absolutely fine, lately with that closing runner-up finish at the tough Spanish Open. Even forgetting his quality showings on the Champions Tour, for which he is easily one of the top-3, and his season reads perfectly well currently standing 22nd on the RTD. Although rain during play would be an big inconvenience to him, there doesn't seem too much threat of that and he can use the patience and guile of a course winner, and one with a huge deal of 'balls' and ambition, to be in contention throughout the weekend.
|
