China Open

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4-5; -0.78pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

David Horsey to beat Morten Orum Madsen -110 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  WON by 4
Horsey had been in good form recently, finishing seven shots ahead of Madsen last week and 10th and 17th in his two events prior to last week's Shenzhen International. He has a far better record in China than his opponent - just one top-50 finish in three attempts, whereas Horsey has five in his last six visits - and so should be the favourite on this course unused since 2008.

Alvaro Quiros to beat Tyrrell Hatton -106 @ Pinnacle  WON by 2
With a h2h record of 4-0-1 in their last five common events, Quiros dominates matchup and with a 3rd place finish in this event last year (plus 15th place finish last week in Shenzhen), he is player to back in China.

Robert Karlsson to beat Ryan Fox -125 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Backing the vastly experienced Karlsson who has a good record in China against a player who rarely plays outside of Australia and, even more rarely, against such a field and for such prize money as this week.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Tommy Fleetwood to beat Emiliano Grillo +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 6
Fleetwood is a player widely expected to play well this week - he finished 3rd in the Shenzhen International last week and 2nd in this event last year. Currently inside the top-25 after rd1, I'll back him to continue his form in rd2.

Alvaro Quiros to beat Tyrell Hatton -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 8
A repeat of the rd1 matchup. Not only does Quiros dominate this matchup, as outlined earlier, but he played far better than Hatton in rd1 who hit less than 40% of fairways and less than 40% of greens in regulation.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Shiv Kapur to beat Jin Zhang -195 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 3
Easy to oppose Zhang who is playing in only his 11th Tour event and had missed eight of his ten cuts. He has never finished a single round inside the top-25 in a Tour event until this week, so nerves should be an issue as he starts this weekend in 15th place.

Hao-Tong Li to beat Ashun Wu -125 @ BetVictor [available generally]  TIED
2nd last week and 4th so far this week, Li has been very impressive and is playing as well as anyone on this leaderboard - he ranks 1st in driving accuracy and 7th in green in regulation so far. Wu is playing in only his second start of the season - he missed the cut last week - in 21 previous European Tour events, he is yet to finish in the top-10. He appears far less likely to remain there tomorrow.

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Thomas Pieters +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 2
Opposing Pieters who has been in very poor form recently, but has made the cut this week. Jacquelin is also inside the top-15, but his form is much better and he does have a very good record in China, including a win on this course in the 2007 Asian Open.

Richie Ramsay to beat Byeong-Hun An -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 6
Two players in 10th place, but Ramsay entered this week in far better form, winning the Trophee Hassan II and finishing 11th last week. An withdrew midway through his 2nd round last week and had finished 45th, 59th and 34th in his three events prior to last week and that form has continued to this week - he ranks 48th in greens in regulation despite his top-10 position on the leaderboard. With that lack of form and ball-striking, he is an easy player to oppose in rd3.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Havret tb Aguilar -145 (L)]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Scott Strange to beat Thomas Pieters +163 @ Bet365 [available generally]  LOST by 2
Opposing Pieters who starts the final round of a Tour event inside the top-10 for only the 5th time and in those previous four occasions, he has failed to break 70 any time and has always finished further down the leaderboard at the end of the event than at the start of the day. In poor form in the run-up to this event, confidence in his game should not be a factor that can overcome his previous difficulties from this position. Strange is in much better form - he is 5-for-5 in cuts made in 2015, including two top-10 finishes - and he is a former winner of this event (2009), so is proven at converting top-10 chances.

Seve Benson to beat Thomas Pieters -120 @ Paddy Power  TIED
Benson is another in much better form - he has made his last seven cuts - and has played much better from tee-to-green this week: he ranks inside the top-10 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation, whereas Pieters ranks 51st and 20th respectively.