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Julien Quesne - 1.0 points each-way @ 66-1 (1/5 123) Richie Ramsay - 1.5 points win @ 12-1 (1/5 123) Back Julien Quesne - 1.35 points @ 75 (Betfair) Back Richard Green - 0.50 points @ 200 (Betfair) Lay Quesne and Green - 6 points @ 14 (Betfair) Pretty miffed at not playing last night when I felt the board was open to lots of changes, and results today havent helped matters! Joint leaders at halfway Julien Quesne and Peter Uilhein both had mares today whilst defending champion Alex Levy was nicely clear until shooting 2-over for his final nine, and that without making ground at the pair of par-5s, his staple. We now have a leaderboard where anyone of at least thirteen players, within four shots, can win an event that could be carnage down the stretch. Five of the last six holes are ranked in the hardest seven on course, whilst the hardest two come at 16 and 17. This is absolutely ripe for someone to get into the house at nine or ten-under and watch (although I feel 8-under may well be a challenging score). Joint-leader David Howell showed exactly what happens when a player falls off the pace after a good round, coming back with a 68 after that second round 72 and I have a feeling that Quesne may well do the same tomorrow. We were on when he won in Italy in 2013, coming from exactly this position (four behind) and he'll have no pressure on him at all tomorrow. It's a bit of an ask but he is a strong finisher when conditions are right - four of his last six Sunday Sunday rounds are 68 or less - and the market has over-reacted to today's effort. Ramsay isn't one of my favourite players but there is no doubt that he is in-form and looks injury free to boot. The Scot has progressive form in China and having won the Trophee Hassan recently, will not lack in confidence. Back at Morocco, he wobbled a bit in front and I expected him to fade as is his wont. However he steadied the ship with an impressive 3-under back-nine and followed that up in Shenzhen last week with a strong finishing 11th. Just two off the pace, his constant accuracy may well win the day on a track that has been favoured by similar types in the past. I was tempted by Grillo but his efforts when hitting the front put me off, whilst a Sunday comeback by the likes of Manassero isn't impossible by any means though I want to see the Italian show more through four rounds. Instead the 200 up for Richard Green looks well worth a shekel or two as a trade. Green is a nightmare when coming through the field as he always seems to do something rediculous when with a chance but having seen the likes of Jacquelin win here, he was always on my radar as a similar type and is another for whom an off-the-pace effort suits his game. He is a long way off but hasn't been doing much on his front-nine - a quicker effort and those prices could come tumbling. I am in two minds how to play these but will be having a fixed odds wagers on Quesne and Ramsay whilst using the larger two prices as trades on Betfair. Should either Quesne or Green trade at 14, there is a 4+ point profit on the trade plus 16 point free bet.
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