Made in Denmark

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4-8; -11.96pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Robert Karlsson -111 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Karlsson played well to finish as the runner-up in the Paul Lawrie Match Play three weeks ago, but he hasn't played ago and, having missed his previous six cuts, there is plenty of reason to expect it will be difficult for him to recreate that form this week. Colsaerts holds a 9-3-2 h2h record against him in 2015 and warrants favouritism in this matchup.

Magnus A. Carlsson to beat Chris Paisley -120 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 2
Carlsson has a good record in rd1 - he has competed in seven strokeplay events in the last three months and finished rd1 in 41st place or better every time. Paisley can't match that consistency and nor can he match Carlsson's experience on this course, so I'll back the Swede at this stage of the event.

Rikard Karlberg to beat Robert Karlsson -110 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Opposing Karlsson again and with another player who dominates the h2h stats: he leads Karlsson 10-3-1 h2h in all rounds in 2015. Not only does he have two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, he also finished in the top-10 here last year (Karlsson is making his course debut this year). 

Bradley Dredge to beat Robert Rock -115 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet]  WON by 5
Dredge led throughout the first three days last year, but dropped back after three bogeys in his first seven holes on the Sunday. He never fully recovered and finished two shots behind Marc Warren, but this is clearly a course that suits his game and he finished 12 shots ahead of Rock in last year's inaugural event. With Dredge in better form and playing more often than Rock in recent months, a similar result between these two is expected this year.

Carlos Del Moral to beat Jose Manuel Lara -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Two players in good form, but whereas that involves top-20 finishes in each of Lara's last two starts, Del Moral's form dates much longer: he has four top-20 finishes in his last top starts. He was also eight shots ahead of Lara when his compatriot missed the cut on this course last year so Del Moral warrnts clear favouritism in this matchup.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Magnus A. Carlsson to beat Chris Paisley -120 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  TIED
Carlsson should have won this matchup today - he was ahead of Paisley with two holes to play, but a very poor finish turned it into a defeat. I'll back again for the same reason as today at the same odds for tomorrow.

Kristoffer Broberg to beat Rikard Karlberg +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 1
Broberg has been in very good form recently - since the Nordea Masters in June, he has finished 13th-6th-27th-12th-mc-10th-17th. Admittedly, he had a poor scoring day today, but he ranked inside the top-20 for greens in regulation so has the ball control as well as the form to recover tomorrow. 

Richard Bland to beat Oliver Fisher -140 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Fisher did play well in this event last year, but he is struggling with his game at the moment. He has missed 11 of his last 15 cuts, secured a best finish of 50th in strokeplay events over that spell and exited the Paul Lawrie Match Play in the first round last time out. A rare opportunity to oppose such an out-of-form player.

Hennie Otto to beat Michael Hoey -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3
Inside the top-30 in his first competitive round in seven weeks (and already two shots ahead of Hoey), I'd expect Otto to improve throughout the week as his Tour rustiness subsides. Hoey's all-round game was poor today and so appears less likely to improve tomorrow.

Marc Warren to beat Soren Kjeldsen +120 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle]  WON by 4
Warren had a poor opening round, but it is understandable as he was playing as the defending champion for just the third time in his European Tour career. Given his form recently - in his last three European Tour events, he has finished in the top-5 twice and in the other, the Open Championship, he was inside the top-5 at the start of the weekend - he should bounce back tomorrow.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Bradley Dredge to beat Terry Pilkadaris -175 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 5
Backing Dredge again. He led after each of the first three rounds last year, before finishing 2nd and this year, he has been inside the top-5 after each of the first two rounds. Short odds, but justified given Dredge's record at Himmerland.

Thomas Bjorn to beat Tom Lewis -165 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 1
Bjorn finished two places behing Dredge in 4th place last year, having been joint leader with the Welshman in rd1. He is in 15th place and still in contention to home in his home country - as he stated in interview earlier this week, only playing in Majors is more exciting than playing in his home country. 80,000 people came to this event last year - the first European Tour event in Denmark for 11 years - and they came mainly to support Bjorn (and the other two Danes who finished in the top-10). It will be a similarly noisy day tomorrow and this is a situation in which Bjorn normally thrives and should be rather more difficult for his much less experienced playing partners.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Thomas Pieters to beat Kevin Phelan +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Pieters played much better golf than Phelan today, but took a 'snowman' on the penultimate hole - the Belgian was four shots ahead of Phelan outside that hole. Both are a long way down the leaderboard, so I'll go with the player in much better form at plus odds.

Richard Bland to beat David Lipsky +107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 2
Surprised to see Bland as a clear underdog in this matchup. He has finished ahead of Lipsky in 9 of their last 11 common events and that includes the lower final round each time during that period. Given that only four players have hit less greens in regulation that Lipsky this week, there are few signs that he can stop this one-sided match continuing.