Dubai Desert Classic

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3-0; +6.40pts  (system plays: 1-3-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Robert Karlsson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +120 @ SkyBet  WON by 1
Two players with good records on this course - Karlsson hasn't missed a cut since 2001 and has three top-10 finishes; Olesen has two top-10 finishes in four attempts - but Karlsson looks the more likely to secure another top-10 finish here: he has finished ahead of Olesen in each of their last five common events, including the two previous events on the Middle East leg of the European Tour. That translates to value at these odds.

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Rory McIlroy to beat Marc Warren -201 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 7
Every bet has a price at which it is value and this is it, in my opinion. Yes, this is the 5th time that he has been leading the Dubai Desert Classic after 36 holes (the 4th time with a one-shot lead at this stage) and he has won this event only once from this postion, but Warren had missed the cut in six of eight previous visits to Emirates GC until this week. And it is not as though he has played well to be 2nd on the leaderboard - he ranks outside the top-50 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so far this week, whereas he ranks 1st in putts per GIR and 2nd in putts per round. A very hot putting streak is unlikely to return under the pressure of playing in the final group tomorrow. Furthermore, this is the 3rd time that these two have been paired together. McIlroy shot the lower score on both previous occasions and is an extremely strong favourite to so again with Warren's game in poor shape.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Westwood tb Gallacher -114 (W); Fisher R tb Luiten -105 (L); Wall tb Lipsky -115 (L); Fisher R tb Aiken -131 (L)] 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Andy Sullivan to beat Peter Uihlein +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Despite being priced as the underdog in this matchup, Sullivan (4th) is already a shot ahead of Uihlein (8th) and he has played better from tee-to-green this week (3rd in GIR vs 33rd for the American). That reflects the better form that the Englishman is in given that he won the South African Open earlier this month and finished in the top-20 in Qatar last week; Uihlein has finished 31st and 58th so far this year. The form and better tee-to-green play should carry forward to tomorrow as there should be little pressure with McIlroy so far ahead.