Open de Espana

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2-3; -5.38pts 

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Victor Dubuisson to beat Tommy Fleetwood +107 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 8
I'll take these odds on Dubuisson. He has finished ahead of Fleetwood in both of their common strokeplay events in 2015 and is 4-1-0 in their last five common strokeplay events. Neither player has a good record in this event, but Dubuisson did at least play in this event in 2011 when in his first year as a professional. Ranked #1 in Greens in Regulation on the European Tour, he has the game to play well on virtually any course on this Tour.

David Howell to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -110 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  WON by 6
Howell ranks 48th places higher than Olesen in the Greens in Regulation category, but he mostly gets the nod in this matchup on the basis on his recent form: since March, his finishes has been 2nd-34th-23rd-27th-4th-2nd. Olesen did finish 2nd last week in Mauritius, but it was his first event since he had a tendon in his left hand repaired on February 9th. After such a lengthy layoff, consistency of form should be difficult to achieve.

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Victor Dubuisson to beat Tommy Fleetwood +137 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  TIED
I can't find any injury information on Dubuisson so I'm assuming that's not a problem, so I'll try a repeat of the rd1 loss. Last year, he finished outside the cut line after rd1 on five occasions and then shot 67-69-68-66-68 in rd2, finishing inside the top-15 in three of those five occasions, so he is certainly capable of bouncng back tomorrow. Fleetwood certainly played well today to finish in 2nd place, but the last two occasions that he has finished rd1 inside the top-5, he has then shot 75 (2014 HSBC Champions) and 79 (2015 Malaysian Open) in rd2, he is far from guaranteed to shoot a second successive low score.

Ross Fisher to beat Alvaro Quiros -123 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] [2pts]  WON by 6
Fisher hit as many greens in regulation as Quiros today, but poor putting sees him 63rd position whereas Quiros is inside the top-10. But Quiros is a player in poor form, finishing 70th-mc-15th-mc in his four starts over the last three months, so I do not expect his ball-striking to be as consistent tomorrow. Fisher has been much more consistent recently, missing just one cut in the last eight months, so I expect a bounce back tomorrow.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Magnus A. Carlsson to beat Johan Carlsson -110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
Without a top-50 finish in his last five starts, Johan is the player to oppose in this matchup. Magnus' recent form has been much stronger - he finished in the top-10 in his last outing, the China Open - and he has played well so far this week, ranking inside the top-10 for greens in regulation. On that basis, it is clear who should be the favourite in this all-Swedish matchup.

David Horsey to beat Ben Evans -120 @ Paddy Power  TIED
And in this all-English matchup. Horsey has three top-10 finishes in the last six Opens de Espana, including the 2011 event on this course, plus he holds a 17-6-1 h2h record against Evans. The dominance of this matchup and his experience should come to the fore over the weekend.

Round 4 play (2pts):

David Howell to beat James Morrison -159 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 4
Morrison has certainly better tee-to-green than Howell so far this week, but it will be all about experience tomorrow in this matchup between the two leaders. For Howell, this will be the 11th time that he has held the lead after 54 holes on Tour, including the China Open only three weeks ago. He finished 2nd on that occasion, but he only finished one shot out of the lead and he had won four of his previous nine occasions in this position. For Morrison, he did win the 2010 Madeira Island Open, but he held a three-shot lead after 54 holes and opened with two bogeys in the first three holes, before finally holding on to win by a single shot. In the second (and last) time that he held the lead after 54 holes, he then shot 78 in the final round of 2011 Open de France. With just one top-40 finish in his last nine starts, Morrison may have played well this week, but confidence in his game must surely be weak once it is put under tomorrow's final round pressure.