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David Horsey - 4 points @ 26 (Betfair) Tommy Fleetwood - 2.5 points @ 40 (Betfair) Set 'Lay' both players - 12 points @ 8 (Betfair) David Horsey - Top-10- 2 points @ 9-4 (Stan James) Tommy Fleetwood - Top-10- 2 points @ 5-2 (Stan James) Sorry but I couldn't trust any of the top 15 or so to get the job done at a tough Golf du Palais Royale and would expect to be trading this event until the 72nd hole. Nevertheless, when it's 2-1 that either Coetzee, Green or (laughably) Cabrera-Bello win from here, there has to be a bit of value elsewhere, and certainly a couple of these are overpriced in terms of shortening and making a profit without winning. First up is someone I did not want to back this week but feel he is a must now. David Horsey came from just off the pace at halfway when winning a play-off here in 2011 and is asked slightly more this time around, but this is exactly the time to get him onside. The call on driving accuracy over length gives the Englishman an advantage round here and his record of 8/2/14/1 shows just how his game suits the course. It's been tougher than usual here this week but he managed to get to 5-under (one off the pace) before dropping shots at his last two holes today and that off an unusually poor figure off the tee. Despite that win here (given to him by Rhys Davies) his record in contention is poor, as illustrated by that last-round collapse at the Tshwane Open when finishing out the frame from the joint-lead, but he always appeals as the type to trade at a single-figure price and is a confident choice to shorten. Tommy Fleetwood still has loads of improvement to come and isn't the first to spring out the page on either current or course form but he has results in better grade and is another whose score could have been better bar one mistake - a double-bogey on his 12th today. I recall him expressing surprise at his good start to 2014, saying he always starts slowly, and as such I am not worried about a best of 23rd in Qatar a couple of months ago or his recent average finishes (recent winners had not done much until their win). This week, once again, Fleetwood is giving himself lots of chances ranking top-20 for accuracy and GIR but not getting the rewards with the putter, and I'm going to take the punt (at around 40) that he can finally work out what to do with the flat stick. Needing to win to make The Masters (as does current T5 Coetzee) may be pressure as we get to Sunday but by then he will have hopefully reached the first lay target. Should either player hit the lay target of 8, there will be a 5.5 point profit with approx 16 point free bet
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