Irish Open

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4-2; +2.30pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Shane Lowry -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 1
Lowry won this event as an amateur in 2009, but he has only one top-20 finish in the last five years in this event, whereas Molinari has two top-10 finishes in his last three Irish Opens. Together with the form that has seen him finish 2nd and 5th in the last two weeks, he looks better placed to contend this week than Lowry's who confidence must be diminished after a poor run of form on the PGA Tour.

Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Pablo Larrazabal -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Two players in indifferent form, but there were signs of better play last week when sitting on top of the leaderboard during the 1st round (and finishing 22nd) and it was only his fourth start since returning from a two-month absence from the Tour. Larrazabal's form has been poor over the last two month and with just one top-25 finish in 12 attempts at the Open Championship and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, there is little evidence that he will play well on this links course. Colsaerts has two top-10 finishes in his last three Open Championships/Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, so he should fare better on this course.

George Coetzee to beat David Drysdale -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Coetzee is a proven links-player and should go close this week. Ignoring last week on a very different course, his previous four strokeplay finishes had been 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st. Over the same period, Drysdale has finished mc-55th-mc-56th-mc-dq, so this should really be a one-sided matchup.

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Rickie Fowler to beat Matt Ford -225 @ Ladbrokes [available generally]  WON by 1
Not a lot to say other than Ford ranks outside the top-400 in the World Rankings and has missed four of his last four cuts, his playing partner, Fowler, won The Players Championship last time out and ranks inside the top-10 in the World Rankings. There will be a lot of pressure on Ford who took ten attempts at Qualifying School before making it onto this Tour; I'll be very surprised if he manages to stay in the top-10 in this situation.

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Jake Roos -175 @ SkyBet [available generally]  LOST by 6
Expecting another player outside the top-400 to show why they have such a World Ranking - performances over the weekend. This will be the 8th time that Roos has started the weekend inside the top-20 in a European Tour event ... on every previous occasion, he has finished the 3rd round in the lower position. In each of the two previous occasions that he has been in this position in the last six months, he has shot a round of 80 or higher over the weekend, so it is easy to side with a player who has finished 2nd in each of the last two weeks.

Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Richard McEvoy -138 @ Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Sportingbet [available generally]  WON by 9
Fitzpatrick has taken some time to adjust to professional golf, but top-25 finishes in each of his last two starts suggests that he is slowly reaching the competitive level that many expected of him. McEvoy has made his first cut in five starts, so his game doesn't appear to at the level needed to reverse a 12-4-0 h2h record which Fitzpatrick holds against him.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Sullivan tb Carlsson -120 (W); Fisher R tb Lewis -120 (L)] 

No round 4 plays.