Italian Open

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5-3; +3.72pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Soren Kjeldsen -115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Cabrera-Bello is one of only eleven players in this field who played in the last Tour event to be held on this course: the Parco di Monza Challenge ... he finished 3rd on that occasion. Together with a 7th place finish in the KLM Open last week and six top-15 finishes in his last nine starts, he looks set for a very good week. Kjeldsen hasn't finished ahead of him in any event over the last three months, so the Spaniard should be a clear favourite in this matchup.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Eddie Pepperell +105 @ SkyBet  WON by 2
Pepperell is in better form than Kjeldsen - he finished one shot ahead of Cabrera-Bello last week - but he had finished behind him in five of their previous six common events. The other factor is that Cabrera-Bello is well-known as a fast-starter in event - he has held the 1st round lead in two of his last six events and been the 2nd round leader in four of his last 14 events. That fast has given Cabrera-Bello a 14-2-1 h2h record against Pepperell in rd1 in 2015, so the value should be with the Spaniard at this stage of the event.

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Stewart Cink to beat Tommy Fleetwood +110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 1
Considered backing Cink in a couple of rd1 matchups, but backed out when I saw pictures of his damaged putter on Twitter. He seems to be putting okay with the replacement and has the pedigree to represent value at these odds against a player who has made his first cut in five events. 

Jeev Milkha Singh to beat Paul Maddy -111 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 2
Opposing Maddy who looks set to go to the European Tour Qualifying School after missing 12 of his last 15 European Tour cuts. He has made the cut this week, but looks unlikely to turnaround his season from 25th place, so I'll side with experience at the pressure-packed stage of the season. Singh's form isn't great, but he has the safety net of golf on the Asian PGA Tour next year rather than a trip to the Qualifying School.

Matthew Nixon to beat Daniel Brooks -134 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 5
No particular problems for Nixon and Brooks who are inside the top-110 on the Race to Dubai, but only just: Nixon is 105th; Brooks 103rd. Given their respective form, Brooks should be more concerned: he has not been in particularly good form recently and has played poorly this week (125th in greens in regulation) and got back under the cut line only due to a extraordinary short game today - he took just 20 putts in today's round. Such play is unlikely to be repeated again tomorrow, so Nixon should continue his domination of this matchup: he leads Brooks 11-4-0 in their last 15 common events.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Marco Crespi +120 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON by 1
Good odds to oppose Crespi who has broken 70 in rd4 just once in the last 12 months, whereas Gonzalez shot 66 last Sunday to continue to run of shooting a lower score in every single round of the KLM Open. Neither player in the best of form, but Gonzalez played well last week and they are both in the top-30 this week, so the Argentinean should be pick'em at worst.

Bernd Wiesberger to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
Opposing Kaymer who starts the final round in the lead for the first time since the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in January when he blew a ten-shot lead. That will be very hard to forget and the World #30 is just the player who can profit from that.

Shiv Kapur to beat Pedro Oriol -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
As with the rd3 plays, I'm siding with experience in these pressure matchups. At 119th and 124th respectively in the Race to Dubai, both are outside the top-110, so experience as well as the safety net of the Asian PGA Tour should enable Kapur to perform better tomorrow.