|
Craig Lee - 1 point e/w @ 66-1 (Stan James) In an event that looks likely to yield a winning score of around -19/-20, it is hard to see anyone coming from way off the pace. The course is playing far easier than we were led to believe, and the par-5s are crucially all playing at or over 0.5 shot easier than their par. The board is littered with proven winners with the likes of Martin Kaymer, Danny Willett, Miguel and Weisberger but with the exception of the Spanish legend, they are all priced accordingly - on a track that can give up 6-unders for fun, they are no value. In front and alongside those experienced campaigners, the likes of leaders Bjerrgaard and Fahbring are yet to prove themselves in this class, the former throwing away a few chances in the past and the Swede playing well on the Challenge Tour, but with little pedigree so high up at this level (yet). It looks unlikely that anyone below 8-under can do enough to overtake the twenty odd players above them, and the one that stands out at the price is Craig Lee at 66-1, just three off the pace. The Scot seems to appear on leaderboards far more than his record indicates, with just three top-3 finishes, and seven further top-10s since 2011 but it isn't for the want of trying, and it is hard to forget the way he launched through the field at another tricky but scoreable track, at Crans in 2013, his 61/67 finish losing out to course specialist Thomas Bjorn in a play-off. It has been a tad slow for him since but he was with the leaders until the Sunday at Tshwane (13th to 5th on day three), and came right back to form with a couple of 8th place finishes at the recent Czech and Russian events, the latter offering a real chance for him to break his maiden until he once again fell short on a Sunday. Okay, he isn't the most reliable when he has that chance down the stretch but he is alreday 8-under for the par-5s this week and I really don't think he is four times the price of Wattel (another frustrating player), or three times that of Karlberg, a player most would like to see win one at this level but in cold hard facts, hasn't done so yet. The 7-2 for a top-10 appeals as an additional wager given the way he attacks a scoreable 'moving day' but the win odds (8.25-1 your money for a place,first four) simply stands out.
|
