KLM Open

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4-5; -5.42pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Thomas Bjorn to beat James Morrison +100 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 7
Morrison has had a very good season, winning the Open de Espana and finishing 2nd in the Open de France, but with finishes of 77th and mc in his last two starts and a best score of 74 in his last five rounds, there is evidence that his game is not at the level that it was earlier in the season. Bjorn is in better form and backable at plus-odds.

Mikko Ilonen to beat Pelle Edberg -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 10
Edberg has played on this course twice previously and finished wd-mc. Given that he has also finished behind Ilonen in each of their last four common events, the Finn looks the more likely victor in this matchup.

Rikard Karlberg to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -115 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Another all-Scandinavian matchup, but I'll side with the Swede in this one. He has finished in the top-15 in each of his last three starts and four of his last five and finished ahead of Olesen when they last both played on this course.

Magnus A. Carlsson to beat Robert Rock +101 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 2
And another Swede. Rock may be a player to back in rd4, but Carlsson is far better in the earlier rounds, holding a 17-8-5 h2h record in 2015 in the those rounds. He has also finished 11th and 36th in the last two years on this course, so there should be value in these odds for a rd1 play.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Andy Sullivan -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
The Spaniard played better than his opponent today, hitting more greens in regulation and leading the field in scrambling, and given that he has finished ahead of Sullivan in six of their last eight common events, it looks likely that he will play better than his opponent again tomorrow.

Richie Ramsay to beat Chris Wood -111 @ Paddy Power  TIED
A similar story in this matchup. Ramsay also hit more greens in regulation and scrambling better than his opponent today and has a 8-3-2 h2h record against him in 2015. With a particularly good record on this course - 26th-22nd-9th - Ramsay should score much better in rd2.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Wade Ormsby -171 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 3

David Horsey to beat James Morrison -125 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet]  LOST by 1

Alejandro Canizares to beat Simon Griffiths -163 @ Ladbrokes [available generally]  WON by 2

Martin Kaymer to beat Eddie Pepperell -175 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1

Martin Kaymer to beat Joost Luiten -120 @ SkyBet  TIED

No round 4 plays.