Lyoness Open

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2-5; -7.37pts  (system plays: 2-0-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Oliver Fisher to beat Johan Carlsson -106 @ Pinnacle  LOST (Fisher wd)
It is fair to say that these two are not in the best of form - they have both made just one cut in their last five starts - but Fisher does hold an advantage - he has shot the lower rd1 score in each of the last three weeks and hasn't finished behind his opponent in any of those events. In terms of this course, he averages 72.67, which isn't great but looks good when compared to Carlsson's course average of 77.00.

Matthew Nixon to beat Pelle Edberg -120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Two players in better form, but Nison still dominates this matchup 5-2-0 h2h in 2015. He has also played here in the last two years, finishing day 1 inside the top-20 both times, whereas Edberg has skipped the event in the last two years after he shot 76-77 in his last visit in 2012.

David Drysdale to beat Jason Knutzon -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Drysdale has been a regular in this event, finishing the top-40 in each of his last three visits, and has benefitted from regular Tour golf this season. Having lost his European Tour Card last season, Knutzon has played only two events since February, finishing 42nd and mc, so he looks to a player to oppose in this situation with so much pressure on him to make the most of these opportunities.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Lundberg tb Phelan +110 (W)]

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Chris Wood to beat Gregory Bourdy -105 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 1
Bourdy has a four-shot lead after the 2nd round, but he looks to be a player to oppose in this position. He has led after 36 holes on three previous occasions in the last five years: in the 2012 Open de Espana, he then shot 80 to drop to 24th and eight shots off the lead; in the 2012 Irish Open, he then shot 80 to drop to 30th and eight shots off the lead; and in the 2012 Alfred Dunhill Championship, he then shot 74 to drop to 2nd and ten shots off the lead. 

John Hahn to beat Cyril Bouniol -125 @ BetVictor [available generally]  WON by 12
Two players inside the top-10 and had this been last year, I would have backed Bouniol to carry over his form into the weekend - he had seven top-10 finishes on the Challenge Tour in 2014. However, this is only the third cut that he has made in ten events in 2015 so confidence must be rather brittle. He has yet to finish ahead of Hahn in any of their seven previous common events, so I expect him to struggle in this matchup as well as in rd3.

Andrew McArthur to beat Lasse Jensen -138 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 4
Jansen is another whose confidence should be rather brittle. He finished 20th in the year-opening South African Open, but had then missed every cut until this week. McArthur has been in very good form in the last month with two top-3 finishes on the Challenge Tour and 43rd place in the Nordea Masters. He certainly look more likely to move up the leaderboard today.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Drysdale tb Lagergren +120 (W)] 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Mikko Korhonen to beat Gary Stal +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 1
In terms of World Rankings, Stal is the third best player in this field and 320 places above Korhonen, but he had missed four of his last seven cuts prior to this week and hasn't secured a top-40 finish since the Dubai Desert Classic in January. He hasn't played that well this week either - he ranks 49th in greens in regulation so far this week. Korhonen has had five top-40 finishes over the period that Stal is without one and he ranks 5th in greens in regulation so far this week. Playing the better golf, he looks good odds to win this matchup tomorrow.