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David Horsey - back 2 points @ 50 (Betfair) Lee Slattery - back 1.2 points @ 90 (Betfair) Max Keiffer - back 2.25 points @ 44 (Betfair) Set 'lays' for all three players - lay 10 points @ 8 (Betfair) Bit of a conundrum this week as whilst Gregory Bourdy has played magical golf up until now to poach a long-looking four-shot lead, his record from this position doesn't scream 'cert'. Given his record here, 18th in 2012 and 8th in '13, and his stats this week (top in GIR and 8th in putting) he looks to be very difficult to beat, and when added to the record of winners here it may seem foolish to oppose him. Since 2010 only one player has come from outside the final two-ball at halfway to be victorious, and Lara and Lundberg actually dropped out of the top-4 after the third round to come again. It looks therefore then that the current 11-8 on offer could be huge come Sunday afternoon, all except for the Frenchman's stats from this poistion- he is 0 from his last 3 when leading at halfway. A shot in front in Spain and Ireland in 2012 he was eventually beaten by nine and thirteen shots respectively whilst he tied for the lead at the Alfred Dunhill in the same year after a 66/65, but finished the weekend with 74/72 and a 13 shot beating. Whilst he has won 3/5 from this poistion previous to that (2009 and earlier), he has always appeared a type best suited to a gruelling event where he can prove his worth in windy conditions - exactly as when winning his last event in Wales in 2013. If conditions are suiting low scores and he gets placed under pressure before his tee-time, he seems the type to struggle to kick-on and for exchange punters that is perfect. Joining Bourdy in the final group is one of my favourite 'from behind' players, Chris Wood who looks very difficult to shift out the frame. Since returning from injury, the lanky youngster (destined for an Open victory at some point) has been extremely consistent racking up top-5s at Morocco and Wentworth and coming here after a top-20 in the Irish Open. With a 12th on his only visit here in 2012 the Englishman has rock-solid claims and his length and ability on par-5s will be crucial here this weekend but at 9-2 best he makes little appeal given there are twenty players within four shots of his 8-under total. On the same score, the inconsistent Gary Stal also makes little appeal at around 10-1. No doubt Stal has the game to win anywhere and, having been touted for a few years, rewarded the faithful with an impressive maiden win in Abu Dhabi. Things haven't gone to plan since and he has done little to encourage backers until today,but with his stats showing a relatively poor DA and GIR figure he will do well to stay up top for much longer. Given his poor Sunday rounds so far this season, he looks one to watch rather than pile into. Instead take three players, just off the pace, to close over the next 27-holes and bank a profit even if they eventually do little. David Horsey will always be one to watch when GIR are essential to victory. A streaky player, he can be relied on to appear on leaderboards at the same venue every year before probably missing those few vital putts. Interestingly, he shows up very well at the Trophee Hassan each season and was 17th there this year whilst Wood and defending Lyoness champion were tied-3rd. Currently just three behind second-place, his recent missed-cuts have come at courses on which he has a poor record anyway, and after a top-10 here last year (47th to 5th after the third-round) he appears overpriced at around 50 on Betfair, as compared to a more realistic 40-1 on the books. It is hard to believe that a player coming off a 7th in the Nordea last week and with a record of 4/9 here in the last two years is currently 90 on the machine, and Lee Slattery is crying out to be backed. Slatts hasn't won since the 2011 Madrid Masters but he is often on the leaderboards, most notably when adding top-10s in Italy and Switzerland to his top-5 here last season. He hasn't played awful golf this year and looking at his missed-cuts shows it is usually a bad spell through one of the first two rounds, rather than a breakdown of his game. The 36-year-old was going very well before an odd spell in the middle of his round today before recovering well enough to sit in a big group at 4-under and tied-10th. Slattery hit a couple of 66's in his event last year and, of course, anything like that will be welcomed. In only his third season, Max Keiffer has built up something of a reputation as a Sunday let-down, and subtantiated that view with a mini collapse last week when a real challenger for the Nordea crown. Dropping four shots in two early holes when in contention, he did very well not to let the round get away from him, eventually rallying to finish third, a result that establishes an excellent run of form reading 3/8/27/9 and no missed cuts in his last 14 starts. These are excellent figures and, at only 25 years-of-age, he has plenty of improvement in him and is well worth putting in the plan, especially after showing his ability here with a first-round 67. Accuracy and iron-play are high in the German's qualities and it will all drop right one day - why not here when that counts for plenty? Should any one of the three players hit the lay target of 8, there is a 4.55 point profit and a 28/30 point free bet.
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