Nordea Masters

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5-0; +10.00pts  (system plays: 2-0-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Alejandro Canizares to beat Jaco Van Zyl -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
Van Zyl was in terrific form at the start of the year when he finished 3rd-2nd-6th-15th-2nd-3rd in six events in February/March, but he recorded his first top-50 finish since that purple patch at the Irish Open last week. Making his debut on this course, it looks unlikely that he will be anywhere near that early-year form this week, so I'm backing Canizares to improve his current 5-2-0 h2h record against Van Zyl in 2015.

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Morten Orum Madsen -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 7
Two players out of form, but moreso Madsen than Jacquelin. The Dane has shot now better than 71 in any round since mid-March and averages 75.5 in his last ten rounds. Jacquelin does have the advantage of course experience - he finished in the top-25 here last year - whereas Madsen is making his course debut and so looks unlikely to improve significantly this week.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Darren Fichardt to beat Tom Lewis +105 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Lewis played well today, but it is long time since he finished day one inside the top-5: just once in the last 20 months and he would finish 63rd on that occasion (2014 Perth International). It has been a similar story on the other occasions that he has finished day one inside the top-10: he finished 72nd in the 2014 Irish Open, 63rd in the 2014 BMW International Open and 73rd in the 2015 Africa Open. That history suggests will not shoot two good scores together, whereas Fichardt looks better value at these odds, having finished in the top-25 in four of his last six starts and 15th on this course last year.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Alex Noren to beat Tom Lewis -153 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 8
Opposing Lewis for the same reasons as yesterday after he recovered from a slow start to finish the day still inside the top-5. Noren is alongside him in 5th place, but is part of a very strong home contingent on the leaderboard. Given that he has finished 1st, 10th and 4th in his last three Nordea Masters, he looks set to prosper again in front of his home crowd.

Alex Noren to beat Alexander Levy -138 @ Paddy Power  WON by 5
Backing Noren against in a typically more even matchup. Whereas Noren leads Lewis 8-2-0 h2h in 2015, this matchup is much more evenly balanced in 2015, but Levy has played poorly so far this week - he ranks 89th in driving accuracy and 79th in greens in regulation over the first two rounds, so it is clearly due to his putting that he is 8th on the leaderboard. That should be difficult to sustain over the weekend, whereas Noren has prospered in this environment in the past.

Stephen Gallacher to beat Lee Slattery -138 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 1
Easy to oppose Slattery at the moment. In his last ten events, he has missed the cut seven times and has a high finish of 38th in the other three events so it was no surprise that he fell back 20 places after he ended rd1 in 4th place. Gallacher is a far better player, ranked almost 300 places higher in the World Rankings - and lost out in a playoff for the title on this course last year. He should be the player in this matchup who is more likely to move up the leaderboard tomorrow. 

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Grillo tb Hoey -162 (W); Fichardt tb Farr -110 (W)]

No round 4 plays.