Portugal Masters

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0-7; -17.49pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Thomas Pieters -138 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
Surprised that the price wasn't shorter in this matchup. Kaymer has a 6-1-0 h2h record against Pieters in 2015 and has three top-15 finishes in five previous visits to Oceanico Victoria; Pieters finished 111th of 126 on his debut last year. Admittedly, he won the Czech Masters and KLM Open, but he has just one other top-30 finish in the last five months so he is an easy go-against with a player ranked 21st in the World Rankings.

Richard Bland to beat Graeme Storm -125 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Bland dominates this matchup 24-4-2 h2h in their last 30 rd1 scores. With a top-5 finish on this course last year - he has finished ahead of Storm in each of the last three years in this event - Bland looks far more likely to contend this week and particularly at the start of the week.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Romain Wattel to beat Alvaro Quiros -168 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3
4th on this course last year (10 shots ahead of Quiros after two rounds) and in decent form recently, the Frenchman can be back at these odds to finish ahead of Quiros for the 9th time in their last 10 common events.

Romain Wattel to beat Andy Sullivan +110 @ SkyBet  LOST by 7
Sullivan is in better form than Quiros, but it has been several months since he last played as well as today - he ends the day in a share of the lead. Wattel also played well - he is 12th after day one - so this is a standard play against the current leader.

Paul Dunne to beat Anders Hansen -144 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 5
Backing Dunne to continue his impressive form. He turned professional after finishing 30th in the Open Championship, finished inside the top-25 in his first two Tour events as a pro, and has ended day 1 in 22nd place. Hansen's last top-25 finish was back in January, so clearly cannot match Dunne's form.

Pablo Larrazabal to beat Alvaro Quiros +100 @ SkyBet  LOST by 2
Larrazabal has struggled for form recently, but he is still in far better form than Quiros - he leads his compatriot 7-3-1 h2h in the last seven months. He also won the BMW International Open in June, so looks more likely to shoot the lower round tomorrow.

Seve Benson to beat Chris Paisley +109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 7
Two players on the Race to Dubai bubble, but the pressure is strongest on Paisley who is 110th on the list and the top-110 retain their Tour Cards for next season. That pressure has seen him miss two of his last three cuts when he was inside the cut line after rd1 both time and in the one occasion that he made the cut, he was 19th after rd1 and then dropped back to 53rd.

No rd3 plays.

No rd4 plays.