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2-2; -0.30pts  (system plays: 4-5-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Emiliano Grillo -120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Big difference between these two which isn't reflected in the odds. Jaidee has finished ahead of Grillo in 30 of 38 common events and he has made the cut in 11 of 12 visits to Doha GC, whereas Grillo has finishes of mc-74th in his two previous visits to this course. Grillo has shown decent form in recent months, but he still ranks 131st in the World whereas Jaidee is inside the top-40 - that's too big a difference in these players for these odds.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fraser tb Fitzpatrick -120 (L); Siem tb Wiesberger +100 (L)] 

Round 2 play (2pts): 

Stephen Gallacher to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 2
I'll take these odds to back the #33 player in the World Ranking in an event such as this and with a dominant 10-5 h2h record in his favour over the last 15 events. Both players have good course histories at Doha GC, but Cabrera-Bello hasn't done particulary well when 2nd on the leaderboard after rd1 or rd2, so this is a good opportunity for Gallacher who is only two further shots back in 14th place after rd1.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Bernd Wiesberger to beat George Coetzee +105 @ William Hill, ToteSport and BetFred  WON by 2
A matchup between two of the leaders after rd2. But whereas Wiesberger is 1-for-1 from this position on the European Tour (2012 Ballantine Championship). Coetzee is 0-for-2 on the European Tour (2011 BMW International; 2012 Joburg Open). Wiesberger has also hit his drives further and straighter, hit more greens in regulation and successfully scrambled more than Coetzee, so there are more reasons to expect him to stay on the top of the leaderboard longer than Coetzee.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Grace tb Coetzee -138 (W); Fisher R tb Hoey -163 (W); Rose tb Benson -200 (T); Rose tb Stenson -155 (W)] 

Round 4 play (2pts);

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello +100 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Opposing a player who tends to struggle in rd4 - the last time that he shot a sub-70 final round was back in 2014 and his last five rd4 scores have been: 80-73-84-72-75. Jaidee is much more consistent as you'd expect from a player ranked #33 in the World and has never had such problems in the final round even when eight shots back as he is this week.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Carlsson M tb Hebert -111 (L); Pepperell tb Grillo +100 (W); Morrison tb Quiros +105 (L); Lorenzo-Vera tb Hebert +100 (L)]