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Kristoffer Broberg - Back 1.5 point @ 90 (Betfair) Andy Sullivan - Back 1 point @ 130 Place lays on both players - 5 points @ 20 Kristoffer Broberg - TOP-10 - 2 points @ 7-2 Andy Sullivan - TOP-10 - 2 points @ 4-1 In benign conditions, joint-leader Branden Grace commented that 'it's a big surprise nobody really pushed on' from the late starters and they may regret that if conditions get tougher as the week goes on. Almost certain to be windier and for the greens to get spiked and tougher to read, it make perfect sense to look for movers from just off the pace, and some at over-the-top generous prices. There was no in-running bet last week as I felt Martin Kaymer and/or Rory had it sewn up but history is there to learn from.... Even recent history points to plenty of movement over the 'weekend', with last year's victor Sergio Garcia coming from 23rd at halfway and 11th after the third round, and 2013 winner Chris Wood breaking his maiden from just inside the top-10 at the cut mark. Given I fancied both Grace and George Coetzee from the start, it is tough to look elsewhere but, whilst their claims are obvious, they are hardly bombproof and sub 2-1 for those two plus tough-to-read Wiesberger hardly screams value given there are 28 players within four shots of that leading score of 9-under. Instead the advice is to take a couple of players on the exchange and, as usual, to 'get out' at a pre-determined price leaving a profit and a freebie if possible. First up is Kristoffer Broberg who is surely a winner-in-waiting on Tour and will continue to improve as the season wears on. Highly thought-of at home (and by compatriot Alex Noren) Broberg caught the imagination of the golf media after winning three times in the space of six events in his first season on the Challenge Tour, a feat that gained him automatic status into the main Tour. 103rd on the R2D at the end of 2013, last season saw him improve dramatically to finish inside the top-50 with top-grade results when 3rd in the Irish Open and an outstanding runner-up to Justin Rose at the Scottish Open having been in the top-three throughout. Despite these results, the Swede was very vocal in admitting he had a lot of work to do on his swing and this may now begin to bear fruit, although admittedly it's a case of 'when' and timing, though he'd be expected to kick-on from last seasons 28th. Broberg is an excellent putter when on form and these big greens play to his strengths. Just three off the pace after an average display on the greens, he'll be a big mover if returning to the figure of day one and at 85 he is too big. Also looking a tad on the large side is recent winner Andy Sullivan, who came from seven shots off the pace to win the South African Open. Sure, he was helped by the debacle that was Charl Schwartzel, but his 67 was the second-best score of the final round and his 4-under back-nine as well as that nerveless play-off suggested he was up for the challenge, something that us punters often doubt with these nearly-men. Notice of his talent was served throughout 2014 with five top-10s including top-5s at the Trophee Hassan and KLM and he has to be confident in his game at present, safe in the knowledge that he can beat the best the game can offer. The Englishman missed the cut here last season but of note is that the 9th place finish in 2013 was his best of the season and he finished with a nine-birdie 65. Out of this years event after a front-nine 38 left him on 1-over, he kicked into gear late today with an excellent home 30, and anything like that will see him rise up the board tomorrow. Just four off the pace and one off a top-10, he also looks big in that market. If the wind does arrive then Gregory Bourdy will be a sad omission but needs must - his form here is appalling, whilst I can see both Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Oliver Fisher fighting back after a poor day now they are off the pace. However this is an event to watch closely from the outset and probably to keep trading in-running. These two will do nicely for starters whilst I'll also be backing them for top-10s given Broberg is there already and Sullivan just one off the pace and coming into the weekend after such a bidie run.
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