Scottish Open

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5-2; +6.00pts  (system plays: 3-2-1) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat Joost Luiten -106 @ Pinnacle  WON by 4
Opposing Luiten who is without a top-50 finish in three attempts in this event and has been in indifferent form recently - just one top-30 finish in his last ten strokeplay events. Palmer has finished ahead of him in seven of their last ten common strokeplay events and is 6-for-6 in cuts made on the European Tour so he has the versatility in his game to cope with the challenges of the famous no.1 course at Gullane.

Matt Kuchar to beat Brooks Koepka +110 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 4
A good price to oppose Koepka whose length off the tee will be no advantage on this traditional links course. Kuchar's game look a better fit and that certainly the case 13 years when he qualified for the Open Championship on the no. course. In his own words, "I'm quite excited, maybe as excited as I've ever been. I feel as if my game is in very good shape, so I'm looking forward to playing." I don't see him as a likely winner, but he should have the measure of a player like Koepka.

Matt Kuchar to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
And Poulter. The Englishman has skipped the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship since 2008 (just one top-15 finish in seven attempts prior to that) and he has similarly played in this event only once since it moved to links venues, missing the cut last year. He does have a better record in the Open Championship, but with such a record of avoiding links courses and being part of the celebrity set on Centre Court at Wimbledon earlier this week, he may be another to oppose this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: McDowell tb Gallacher -115 (W); Poulter tb Fowler -103 (L)] 

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Brooks Koepka -110 @ SkyBet  TIED
Backing Kuchar for a second day as he showed good form to finish the day inside the top-10 courtesy of a couple of eagles. Koepka is already outside the cut line and doesn't appear to be competitive on this type of course.

Justin Rose to beat Shane Lowry -163 @ Paddy Power  TIED
Lowry is a proven links player, but Rose is also inside the top-10 and leads the field in greens in regulation on day one (Lowry was 59th), so the defending champions certainly looks capable of repeating last year's feat.

Phil Mickelson to beat Stephen Gallacher -188 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Gallacher has struggled for form recently, missing his last two cuts and today's two-under-par 68 was the first time that he has broken 70 in over four months. Mickelson was a shot further back today, but after the off-course controversy surrounding him over the last week, a slow start was to be expected. I fully expect him to play much better now that the event is fully underway, while Gallacher has shown little to suggest that today's up-turn in form is permanent.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Laird tb Harrington -101 (T); Knox tb Fleetwood +104 (L)]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Johan Carlsson to beat Daniel Brooks -110 @ SkyBet, BetVictor and Sportingbet [available generally]  LOST by 3
Opposing the leader who starts rd3 in the lead for the 3rd time on Tour: in 2012 Colombia Classic, he then shot 76-79 to finish 54th; in the 2012 Nelson Mandela Championship, he then 76 to 11th in the weather-shortened event. Admittedly, he did win the 2014 Madeira Island Open, but that was a weather-affected event that only lasted two rounds, so this still a situation in which he has not done well previously. Given that this is only the second time in his last 15 starts that he has made the cut, there is plenty of reason to expect him to struggle tomorrow.

Justin Rose to beat Shane Lowry -110 @ SkyBet [also available @ Paddy Power and Boyle Sports]  TIED
Both players shot 66 to tie in today's round, but they are now in 2nd place and Rose is the bookies favourite to win this event now. I agree. He is the defending champion, ranks 2nd in greens in regulation so far this week (Lowry is 30th) and has a far better success rate when in contention (as well as being in contention more often) than his opponent.

Ryan Palmer to beat Matthew Nixon -175 @ Stan James and Sportingbet [available generally]  WON by 4
Another matchup between two players in 2nd place. The odds are short on Palmer, but fully justified for three reasons: (i) he has hit his drive further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Nixon so far this week; (ii) he ranks 30th in the World Rankings whereas Nixon is 525nd; and, most importantly, (iii) Nixon will be playing under enormous pressure as he is not only 2nd, but currently on course to earn one of the exemptions into next week's Open Championship, which would be his debut in that event.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Grace tb Hoey -160 (W); Mickelson tb Soderberg -250 (W)]  

Round 4 play (2pts):

Seve Benson to beat Y.E. Yang +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 4
Still plenty to play for in this matchup - both players are in 30th place, but only three shots out of a top-10 position and a place in next week's Open Championship. That looks a difficult task for Yang who has struggled with his game over the last couple of years, whereas Benson has played well this week, ranking 4th in greens in regulation, 9th in scrambling and dropping just two shots over the 54 holes so far.