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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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11-4; +7.00pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pts Richie Ramsay 140 43rd
Mikko Ilonen 350 mc
Miguel Angel Jimenez 140 mc
Ramsay has shown a lot of form in the last month - in all four starts, he has finished rd1 inside the top-10 - and as a multiple-winner on the Tour, it won't be long before he maintains that form for all four rounds; he already has a top-10 finish on this course and deserves to be at shorter odds than this
Course experience is always important at Wentworth and Ilonen has three top-15 finishes here; that is enough to warrant shorter odds on another player who has won multiple events on the European Tour
Backing another multiple-event winner in this flagship event on the European Tour at triple-digit odds, but Jimenez also has the advantage in that he won here in 2008, have five top-5 finishes here in the last ten years and, to counter the charge that he is too old to compete this week, he finished 2nd last year LAY 20pts liability Byeong Hun An 29 33rd
Hao-Tong Li 170 27th
Jeung-Hun Wang 140 33rd
Eddie Pepperell 80 mc
Thomas Pieters 130 27th
Opposing An who is the defending champion and so faces extra pressure this week; he has progressed to the PGA Tour this year, but with missed cuts in his last two cuts, he does not have the best preparation for his first event in Europe for over six months
Li did win his home Open, but otherwise has been in poor form in 2016 so a repeat of last year's missed cut looks far more likely than an appearance towards the top of the leaderboard
Another winner from earlier this month, but Wang missed the cut against a much stronger field in Ireland last week and, making his debut at Wentworth, he should struggle again this week
These odds look low enough to oppose Pepperell - he finished well on Sunday to sneak into the top-10, but his play has been otherwise very poor this year: his best finish in 2016 before the Irish Open was 45th and he quit mid-round in the event before Ireland as "I was becoming a strain on my playing partners, who had to keep looking for my ball after wayward drives"
Without a top-25 finish in the last two months and with a scoring average of 77.00 on this course, Pieters is another who can be easily opposed this week Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Rafa Cabrera-Bello 21 22nd
Martin Kaymer 32 7th
Luke Donald 34 27th
Cabrera-Bello is the best-placed of the three in 6th position, but is still five shots behind the three leaders, so this weeks looks like being the same as so many this year - very good tournaments, but never really threatening to win his first Tour event
Kaymer is a Major champion, so has the ability to win when in contention, but it has been over five years since his last win in Europe and, currently outside the top-10, the fact that he has yet to finish in the top-10 in this event also suggests that these odds are too short
Donald is a former World #1 and a multiple-winner of this event (2011, 2012), but that win in 2012 was his last Tour win outside Japan, so I don't see him catching the leaders from his current position alongside Kaymer outside the top-10 Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Y.E. Yang 18 12th
A big price for a player in 3rd place, only two shots out of the lead and with the leader 1-for-2 when leading on the European Tour after 54 holes (though both occasions were events in Thailand and against much weaker events than this); Yang has the experience to convert his chance if presented tomorrow and shouldn't be triple the odds of Westwood LAY 20pts liability Danny Willett 8.20 3rd
Lee Westwood 6.20 15th
Thomas Aiken 28 4th
Willett shot his fifth consecutive 3rd round score of par or worse today to fall from a share of the lead to 5th and three shots off the pace; he should still record his first top-30 finish in six years, but if he doesn't close the gap early on, a repeat of last Sunday's disinterested round could be repeated
While he has won against much weaker fields in Asia, it has been almost four years since Westwood won in Europe and he has only won once in the last ten times that he has started the final round two shots off the pace and that was in a Asian PGA Tour event in Thailand in 2014 which was not sanctioned by the European Tour; I wouldn't price him this low in this position with ten players within three shots of the lead
Aiken is one of those players inside the top-10 and are three shots off the pace, but it has been over seven months since he last finished in the top-10 in any event and with only two Tours wins outside Africa (both over three years ago), he looks unlikely to convert this chance
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