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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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12-1; +7.37pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Matt Kuchar 70 46th
With five top-6 finishes in his last six starts, Kuchar is a player back to his best and most consistent form - that makes him a likely contender this week, particularly as his links play has improved considerably over the years and he has two top-15 finishes in the last four years in this event and finished 2nd at Gullane in the Scottish Open last year. I'd price him in the 40-50 range so there is value here, particularly as the current weather forecast suggests that the wind should rise considerably on Friday afternoon. LAY 20pts liability Dustin Johnson 9.8 9th
Hideki Matsuyama 75 mc
Jordan Spieth 14 30th
Padraig Harrington 150 36th
Ernie Els 220 mc
Matteo Manassero 250 mc
Thorbjorn Olesen 350 mc
A year ago Johnson was 2nd favourite at 13 and finished 49th and while he has indeed won his last two events, including the U.S. Open, and has a good profile for links golf, this is links golf and that is enough to wary of backing a player at such short odds before the tournament has even begun
Matsuyama has been in poor form recently, missing his last two cuts and finishing 42nd of 59 in the Bridgestone Invitational so I don't see why he would be priced at the same odds as Kuchar
Like Johnson, Spieth is another player who is easy to oppose at these odds in this event - he has prepared hard for this event, but his form has been patchy this season at best so the value should be in opposing him at this stage of event
It has been a long time since Harrington was a back-to-back winner of this event and an upturn in form recently - 9th, 30th and 21st after missing his previous four cuts - it not enough to suggest that he is likely to be a contender this week
The same can be said for Els who is also a double-winner on this event - he finished 5th last time out, but having missed his previous four cuts, it suggests that he is also a long way from turning the clock back to former glories in this event
The fact that Royal Troon is a short course should help Manassero who has struggled in recent years after he tried to add more length to his game, but a fourth missed cut in six Open Championships looks more likely than a repeat of last week's ability to compete for the lead
Finally, Olesen is a player to oppose even though he can blow very hot and cold - in his last five starts he has finished 2nd and missed the cut (including a withdrawal) four times - but without a top-25 finish in a Major Championship for over three years, so looks unlikely to hit form for all four days this week Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Rory McIlroy 22 5th
Rickie Fowler 80 46th
Sergio Garcia 21 5th
Zach Johnson 19 12th
Charl Schwartzel 34 18th
The top-two looked very good over the first two day and these players are all at least five shots Mickelson and it doesn't look at though the weekend weather will be an equalising factor, so McIlroy looks like an easy player to oppose at these odds in in 15th place, eight shots off the pace and openly admitted that he doesn't enjoy these weather conditions - he will need to be aggressive on the front nine and that can easily backfire
Fowler is a shot further back in 22nd place and ranks 100th in greens in regulation so can be opposed, particularly as he hasn't shown much form recently - he missed three cuts in a row in May/June
Garcia is much closer in 6th place, but despite his recent form he ranks 53rd in greens in regulation so far this week and there is so much pressure on him to finally win a Major, I think that it will be very difficult for him to achieve it
Johnson is a shot closer in 5th place and five shots behind, but he faces a similar type of pressure as the defending champion and has hit the same number of greens in regulation as Garcia (25/36) so looks rather short given this situation and his failure to record a single top-3 finish since his win last year
Schwartzel announced a switch of clubs to PXG just before this event and, while he is in 6th place, it has been because of his short game as he has hit less greens in regulation than Garcia and Johnson; under the added pressure of contention in a Major over the weekend, his ball-striking will need to be much better and be fully confident with his new clubs if he is to get closer to the lead.
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