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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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8-3; +1.43pts Pre-tournament plays: James Morrison 75 40th
Adrian Otaegui 150 3rd
Darren Fichardt 190 mc
Morrison played well in the Paul Lawrie Match Play, but he has missed his last five cuts so should be a three-digit price for this event
Otaegui is another who has struggled for form recently, missing three of his four cuts, so it another who can be easily opposed at this stage of the event
Fichardt hasn't played since withdrawing from the Scottish Open seven weeks ago, so is another who I would oppose at this stage of the event as he is unlikely to be at these odds for very long Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1ot Richard Sterne 12.5 10th
Jaokin Lagergren 16.5 5th
Dredge has a 1-for-10 record when leading after 36 holes on the European Tour, so there should be value in a couple of his closest chalengers, of which the most experienced is Sterne who has won five times on the European Tour. He is in 3rd place and while he has been off the radar for some time, that was due to a trying his luck on the PGA Tour, but he is re-focused on this Tour now and has four top-15 finishes in his last nine starts
Lagergren was in the lead after rd1 and is now 2nd after rd2, so he played well yesterday under pressure - he has won previously on the Challenge Tour - and is in prime position to take advantage if Dredge fails to convert again LAY 20pts liability Paul Dunne 80 10th
David Lipsky 32 3rd
Soren Kjeldsen 14 8th
Chris Paisley 350 34th
In terms of Dunne, I'm surprised to see double-digit odds for a player who is seven shots off the lead and had missed three of his last four cuts prior to this event
Lipsky has been in better form and finished 14th and 15th in the last two years, but he has struggled with his ball-striking - 76th in greens in regulation over the first two rounds - so will need to play much better if he is significantly close the six-shot gap to Dredge
Kjeldsen is also six shots back so I presume that these odds are based on him being the home player, but that brings added pressures and he failed to convert from a similar position last year, so 14 is very short given the situation
Paisley is nine shots back and outside the top-20 - he is very easy to oppose from this position and I would have expected much bigger odds Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Adrian Otaegui 8 3rd
Limiting my losses on Otaegui. Dredge is 2-for-13 when leading after 54 holes and in one of this conversions, he held an eight-shot lead at the start of the final - in terms of holding a one-shot lead after 54 holes, Dredge is 0-for-3 - so there is reason to expect this to be an open contest tomorrow. Of the leaders - Otaegui is 2nd - the Spaniard has played the best golf this week - he ranks inside the top-10 for driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling - so is a strong candidate to win tomorrow. LAY 20pts liability Martin Kaymer 15 6th
Kaymer is four shots back in 6th place and while he has had a number of good finishes recently, it has been over two years since he last won an event, so these odds look rather short for someone who has become competitive again, but hasn't looked like a Tour winner again.
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