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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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9-2; -17.64pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Alexander Levy 140 56th
Jeung-Hun Wang 160 22nd
Ashun Wu 230 mc
Brandon Stone 140 5th
Oliver Fisher 400 mc
Levy is playing in his first event since withdrawing mid-way through rd2 of the Irish Open after injuring his wrist, so there is even more reason to oppose a player whose best finish is 35th in five attempts at Le Golf National
Since winning back-to-back events in Morocco and Mauritius, Wang has missed the cut in three of four events on the European Tour and is opposed again in these stronger events on mainland Europe
Wu was a surprise winner of the Lyoness Open earlier this month, but he has failed to secure another top-10 in a European Tour event outside his homeland, so looks very unlikely to secure one on his course debut in Paris
Stone has played here previously - he shot 72-77 to miss the cut in 2013 - and he has finished mc-mc-33rd in his last three starts, so he is opposed on grounds of form as well as a poor previous history on this course
As a player with just two top-5 finishes in the last five years on any Tour, I would price Fisher at double these odds and so there is value in opposing him despite the small reward Pre-rd3 plays BACK 1pt Mikko Ilonen 28 25th
McIlroy is justifiably the favourite from this position, but I wouldn't price Ilonen as this price amongst the five joint-leaders - the last three times that he has been leading after 36 holes on the European Tour, he has finished 1st, 2nd and 1st ... certainly value at these odds Lay 20pts liability Martin Kaymer 75 5th
Thongchai Jaidee 15.5 1st
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 100 4th
Bernd Wiesberger 15 11th
Andy Sullivan 23 5th
It is a very crowded leaderboard, but Kaymer is back in 25th place and should be at higher odds from this position, particularly with McIlroy at the top of the leaderboard
Jaidee is alongside McIlroy at the top of the leaderboard, but he finished 3rd in the only other time that he has been in this position on the European Tour; I'd price him at higher odds than Ilonen from this position
Cabrera-Bello is alongside Kaymer in 25th and is opposed on the same basis - too many player ahead of him, including McIlroy, to warrant these odds
As defending champion, Wiesberger is notewirthy in 6th place, but I still wouldn't put him as second favourite until there were less players between him and the top of the leaderboard
Sullivan is also priced rather short for a player in 9th place who hasn't secured a top-15 finish for five months
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