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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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8-5; -20.25pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Benjamin Hebert 100 mc
Richard Bland 70 16th
Backing Hebert for the second week in a row; he got off to a slow start last week and finished back in 36th position, but he has shown enough glimpses of form to warrant attention at this price and on a Montgomerie-designed course, the fact that he ranks inside the top-10 on the European Tour for greens in regulation should be of relevance
Bland has been in much stronger form recently and led the European Masters after 36 holes before falling back to finish 5th; as with Hebert, he is stronger in the greens in regulation department and will make this price look rather large if he can carry over last week's form LAY 20pts liability Brandon Stone 95 10th
Oliver Wilson 400 mc
Jorge Campillo 160 24th
Stone has only played three times in the last two months and those finishes were mc-mc-55th, so he is an easy player to oppose at double-digit odds
Conservative play on Wilson, but that is natural given the lack of knowledge about the course, but he also should be an easy player to oppose as he hasn't secured a top-20 finish in any Tour event since 2014
Similarly Campillo is opposed as the only two events that he has played in the last eight weeks have resulted in a first round playoff loss and a missed cut Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Nino Bertasio 18.5 24th
With the market dominated by Wiesberger and Luiten, there is a good price on Bertasio who is in 2nd place just a shot behind Wiesberger; he has been a very consistent player on the European Tour, finsihing 41st or better in 10 of his last 12 starts which is impressive for a rookie and this is enough to have secured his Tour Card for next season prior to this event - he could easily add a second top-5 finish on Tour this summer LAY 20pts liability Paul Dunne 210 16th
Tommy Fleetwood 16.5 10th
Nicolas Colsaerts 190 24th
Alex Noren 30 34th
Six shots back and in 27th place, I'm happy to oppose Dunne at this price; it is an improved performance this week after missing four of his last six cuts, but there is too much ground to make up to make this a very good week
Fleetwood is much closer in 5th place, but he has recorded just one top-10 finish in the last 14 months so will be rather rusty in a competitive sense - he showed that the last time that he was inside the top-5 after 36 holes (last month's Czech Masters): he shot 74-70 over the weekend to fall from 3rd to 16th
Colsaerts has ability, but being eight shots back and in 48th place, this will take two career rounds to give himself a chance of winning this event - I like the odds on that not happening
Similarly, Noren has the form having won last week's European Masters, but these odds are surely far too short for a player in 27th place and six shots off the pace with only two rounds to go Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Ben Evans 32 4th
This looks a very large price for a player in 3rd place and three shots off the lead. Admittedly, he hasn't had a very good season to date, but he didn't crack under the pressure of leading after day one - he only dropped to 5th after day two - but then he recovered from an early bogey to shoot 68 and is now 3rd. Tht consistency near the top of the leaderboard should warrant shorter odds than this. LAY 20ts liability Joost Luiten 8 1st
Bernd Wiesberger 18 2nd
Luiten is playing in his home event and was widely predicted to be the main challenger yesterday, particularly after birdieing the first hole, but he stalled thereafter and that can often be found with home players over the weekend - the added pressure makes it difficult to perform, so he can be opposed as the 'home player' effect has led to lower odds than would be expected for a player in 3rd place and three shots off the lead
Wiesberger is a shot further back in 7th place, but he has to recover from a poor day when leading the event at the start of yesterday's round which will be difficult when his ball-striking stats are not particularly impressive so far this week
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