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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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9-5; +1.80pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Magnus A. Carlsson 100 10th
Graeme Storm 210 mc
Florian Fritsch 140 51st
The clearest stat about this course is that greens in regulation is key and driving distance isn't, so being ranked 28th in greens in regulation on the European Tour - that is a very high ranking for this field - is a good sign for Carlsson who finished 30th last week and has finished 8th-30th-19th in his three previous visits to Diamond CC
Storm doesn't have Carlsson's form, but a top-10 finish on this course (2013) and three other top-10 finishes in this event at Fontana GC indicate that he does have the pedigree as well as the event history to warrant shorter odds than this
Fritsch is another with a decent history on this course - he finished 17th two years ago and was inside the top-15 with one round to play last week - and warrants attention given the form that he has shown on the Challenge Tour recently and the fact that he held the lead after day one of the Nordea Masters last week LAY 20pts liability: Zander Lombard 220 5th
Dylan Frittelli 95 mc
Dean Burmeister 90 38th
Daniel Im 240 51st
Clement Berardo 290 mc
Opposing Lombard who has played in only one previous European Tour in Europe - he missed the cut last week - and so warrants large odds outside South Africa
Opposing another South African who also rarely travelled outside Africa - since the Russian Open in September he has played every Tour event in the continent Africa apart from two events in New Zealand in March; when he played here in 2012, he was disqualified for missing his tee-time - he blamed jetlag so he is clearly happier in his home country
And another South African - the big-hitting Burmeister's game is not suited to this course with water in 13 holes, plus he is completely out of form - his average score over his last ten rounds is 74.40
Im is another struggling for form - his average score over his last fourteen rounds is 75.00 - he may have a top-10 finish here from two years ago, but he will struggle to be competitive in this form
Berardo has better form - he finished 3rd in the Trophee Hassan five weeks ago - but he has struggled since and he is another big-hitter whose game should not be suited by this course on his debut Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Borja Virto 28 24th
The Spaniard won twice on the Challenge Tour last year to finish 3rd on the Money List and earn his Card for the main Tour this season; that ability to convert chances to win should have resulted in a lower price for Virto who lies in 4th place, two shots off the leaders at the halfway stage. LAY 20pts liability Chris Wood 16 6th
Bernd Wiesberger 32 10th
James Morrison 36 4th
Wood and Wiesberger (with Luiten) were a long way ahead of the field in the ante-post betting market and both are outside the top-10 and opposed at this stage of the event - Wood's ball-striking has been very poor this week, particularly off the tee - he has hit just ten fairways across the two rounds - and he will struggle to make up any progress on the leaders if he continues to play so poorly, while Wiesberger is two shots further back in 23rd place and has similarly only hit 12 fairways over the two days so has shown little sign that he can shoot the very low score needed to get into contention
Morrison is alongside Wood in 11th place, five shots off the lead, and the price looks too short given that position Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Marcus Kinhult 44 26th
Kinhult shot to prominance as a teenage amateur last year when leading the Nordea Masters after both the 1st and 2nd rounds (he also finished in the top-10 in the European Masters); he subsequently earned his European Tour Card for this season via Qualifying School and while this year has been a disappointment, he has tremendous potential and shouldn't be such a large price when only four shots off the lead with one round to play. LAY 20pts liability Joost Luiten 6.60 6th
Luiten is the only player in the top-10 who ranks in the top-100 in the World Rankings and he has won here previously (2013), but he is currently 5th, four shots off the pace and he has never won from lower than 3rd place at the start of the final round; I wouldn't price him this short
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