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Alex Noren - 1.0 points each-way @ 66-1 (Stan James) (1/5 1-4) Kris Broberg - 1.0 points each-way @ 35-1/33-1 (Tote/Stan James) (1/5 1234) Thomas Bjorn - TOP-10 - 1 point @ 10-1 (Stan James) Happy to take a chance on a couple from off-the-pace given both this event plus the Euro Tour in general has seen a few from-behind winners over the last year or so. With Alex Noren there is a chance taken with his overall fitness but if that holds up, his weekend record here is good enough to see him at least close up on the 5 shot deficit with two rounds to go. 4th and 9th the last twice he has played here (injured in 2014), he boasts two rounds in each year of 67 and below and that may be plenty enough if the wind starts blowing. It may be nothing at all bar a numbers game but he came into this event in 2013 with a T32 at Abu, and in 2015 with a T37th at the same event, both setting him off on a decent run. His 35th last week therefore may be more than a coincidence and indicate he is very comfortable between the venues and 66-1 is a serious under-estimation of his ability. Take his close friend Kris Broberg to join him in the weekend move. Well touted at home well before his stunning run on the Challenge Tour, he has taken time to show consistency in his rounds but is now known as a player that will find constant greens-in-regulation. The Swede's game will always be dependent on his putting and this week he ranks top-10 in GIR but only 33rd in putting. Improve that a tad and this four-shot deficit looks nothing compared to coming from 7 behind at the BMW at the end of last year. I'm expecting a huge challenge from him this week. I'm taking a couple of top-10s at large prices as there are bound to be moves from behind from many of the early tee times. Bjorn is my favourite ever come-from-behind player. He seems to make weekend moves more often than any other player I can remember and, of course, Crans springs to mind. He has a great record here in Qatar as well with three top -10s including a win in 2011, and recent form is affected by that troublesome back/neck/shoulder/mood. As such, depending on him playing 72-holes is a leap of faith but I was encouraged by last week's 11th at Abu and felt he was worth a pre-event bet. That looks out of the question now but he still catches the eye in terms of a closer, his overall card littered with mid-60s rounds over the weekend, and having been 3-under through nine holes today looked like getting a prominant position. That back-9 today (course front-9) doesn't exactly shout 'back me' but it is typical Bjorn and I'm just hoping Jekyll overcomes Hyde now he is out of the frame for the moment. I looked closely in this market and the likes of Italian 19-year-old Paratore made some appeal. It takes some faith on face value but he has huge potential and the game to compete at this level if he can just show more game management. Results have been less than many have expected but he is very young and inexperienced and any result in the near-future would boost his career and confidence. There were a few other tempters at big prices - Haydn Porteous is a huge hitter that already has a win behind him and can play in wind but may be too far off the pace - whilst the afore-mentionned Broberg and Noren look big at 2-1 and 10-3 respectively given how strongly they are fancied to move Northwards.
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